US Presidential Election Debate Odds: What The Bookmakers Expect To Happen

Breaking down what the bookmakers expect to happen in the first US Presidential Election Debate
Sam Eaton
Tue, September 29, 6:54 AM EDT

Online bookmakers all over the world are taking bets on who will win the first presidential election debate, and they are offering very unique and humorous prop markets for this evenings debate. Including a buzzword bingo betting market you could play along with at home.

Win the debate

The bookmakers currently have Joe Biden as the overwhelming favorite to win the first debate. The odds were a lot more even when the market opened up back in August, but a few major events and breaking stories have tipped them in the favour of Democrat candidate.

A mentioned, the odds in August were a lot closer, at the end of the month the bookmakers were offering odds of 8/13 (-162) for Joe Biden to win the first presidential election debate, which implied a 61.9% chance. However, those odds have narrowed dramatically, and the bookmakers are now offering odds of 4/11 (-275), which implies a 73.3% chance.

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Donald Trump’s odds of winning the first presidential election were 6/5 (+120) at the end of August, but have since ballooned to 2/1 (+200), which now implies he’s got a 33.3% chance of winning the first presidential election debate.

US Election Odds: First presidential election debate odds

 

Odds

Implied % Chance

Joe Biden

4/11 (-275)

73.3%

Donald Trump

2/1 (+200)

33.3%

* The first US Presidential Election debate betting market will be settled on CNN’s snap poll.

Unfortunately, US residents can’t bet on the US election or even the first presidential debate, they can compete for $50,000 in DraftKings politics prize pool. Entrants have to predict events for the upcoming presidential election to win a share of the prize.

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Despite not being able to bet on the event, we’ve listed a few of our favorite presidential election debate odds below from our UK site. All the odds below are offered by UK bookmakers. Hopefully these odds will help you predict what will happen in Ohio later this evening.

Color of Joe Biden’s tie?

As expected, Joe Biden is expected to be wearing a blue tie at the first presidential election debate. However, there are a few other options in the election betting market which intrigue us. He’s 14/1 (+1400) to be wearing and orange tie, and 20/1 (+2000) to go casual and no support a tie or even wear a bow tie.

US Election Odds: The color of Joe Biden’s tie

Color

Odds

Implied % Chance

Blue

1/1 (+100)

50%

Purple

6/1 (+600)

14.3%

Red

9/1 (+900)

10%

Pink

15/1 (+1500)

6.3%

Orange

15/1 (+1500)

6.3%

No tie or bow tie

20/1 (+2000)

4.8%

Black

22/1 (+2200)

4.3%

Color of Donald Trump’s tie?

The current President is predicted to wear a red tie which would be very on-brand, the odds for this are currently at 1/1 (+100). Other options which have caught our eye in the odds market are blue at 5/2 (+250) and black at 20/1 (+2000).

US Election Odds: The color of Donald Trump’s tie

Color

Odds

Implied % Chance

Red

1/1 (+100)

50%

Blue

5/2 (+250)

28.6%

Silver / Grey

9/1 (+900)

10%

Pink

12/1 (+1200)

7.7%

Yellow / Gold

12/1 (+1200)

7.7%

Orange

16/1 (+1600)

5.9%

Black

20/1 (+2000)

4.8%

Joe Biden to fall asleep during the debate?

Donald Trump often refers to Joe Biden as “Sleep Joe Biden” on social media, and one online bookmaker is playing right into that narrative. They are offering odds of 55/1 (+5500) that Joe Biden will fall asleep during the debate. These odds imply there’s a 1.8% chance of this happening.

We must admit this is very very unlikely, but both of the candidates are getting pretty old now…

Trump or Biden to walk off stage during the broadcast before debate ends and not return?

Some of the trash talk has turned personal in recent months, and it’s fully expected the first debate will be quite heated. Bookmakers are offering odds of 20/1 (+2000) that either Joe Biden or Donald Trump will walk off stage during the broadcast before the debate ends and not return. This would severely impact their 2020 US election chances.

Will Donald Trump wear a mask on stage?

Sportsbooks are predicting that Donald Trump won’t be seen wearing a mask on stage. Mask wearing and COVID19 are expected to be prominent during the night, but bookmakers are offering odds of 5/1 (+500) that Donald Trump wears a mask at any point.

US Election Odds: Will Donald Trump wear a mask on stage?

 

Odds

Implied % Chance

Yes

5/1 (+500)

16.7%

No

1/10 (-1000)

90.9%

How will Donald Trump and Joe Biden greet each other?

Handshakes are a thing of the past in the current climate, but we all know people can be forgettable, especially when they’re very much in the zone. Hopefully they avoid shaking hands and go with a more modern approach of saying hello. However, one bookmaker are still offering odds of 8/1 they shake hands at the start of the debate, which implies a 11.1% chance.

US Election Odds: Will Donald Trump and Joe Biden shake hands at the start of the debate?

 

Odds

Implied % Chance

Yes

1/20 (-2000)

95.2%

No

8/1 (+800)

11.1%

With the handshake appearing being off limits in Ohio, online bookmakers are offering betting options on how they will choose to greet each other.

Bumping elbows is the bookmakers favorite at 4/5 (-125), which implies a 55.6% chance.

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US Election Odds: How will Donald Trump and Joe Biden greet each other at the debate?

 

Odds

Implied % Chance

Bump elbows

4/5 (-125)

55.6%

Fist bump

21/20 (+105)

48.8%

What buzzwords will Joe Biden or Donald Trump say during the first Presidential Election?

One UK bookmaker is offering odds on certain buzzwords or catch phrases to be said during the first presidential election in Ohio. As you can imagine, there are a few buzzwords which are almost guaranteed to be said, and others we wish were muttered by either Joe Biden or Donald Trump, but unfortunately we doubt they will aired on Tuesday night.

We’ve picked out our favorites from the very long odds market, and have listed a few more below.

We’d be astounded if Joe Biden didn’t bring up Donald Trump’s tax repayments at some point during the first presidential debate. The Democrat candidate has already made a few social media digs at Donald Trump around the news broken by NY Times this week. One bookmakers offering odds of 1/20 (-2000) that “Seven Hundred and Fifty Dollars” will be mentioned during the election debate, which equated to a 95.2% chance.

Donald Trump shrug of the tax claims alleged by NY times as “Fake News”, a term which has become associated with his time in the White House. This is another buzzword which the bookmakers expect to be voiced during the Presidential election debate. One online bookmakers offering odds of 1/3 (-300) for “Fake News” to be said on Tuesday night, which implies there’s a 75% chance it will be mentioned.

Even for 2020, it was hard to foresee Kanye West making so many political headlines this year. However, the music mogul has certainly thrust himself into the limelight, and he could be set for even more publicity in Ohio. Bookmakers are offering odds of 6/1 (+600) that “Kanye” will be said during the first debate.

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Could Donald Trump be set for another blunder? Bookmakers have set the odds for the phrase “Person Woman Man Camera TV” to be said in the first debate at 20/1 (+2000), which implies there’s a 4.8% chance we’ll have another viral video on our hands.

US Election Odds: First Presidential Debate Buzzword Odds

Buzzword / Phrase

Odds

Implied % Chance

Seven Hundred and Fifty Dollars

1/20 (-2000)

95.2%

Tremendous

1/6 (-600)

85.7%

Climate Change

1/3 (-300)

75%

Fake News

1/3 (-300)

75%

China Virus

8/11 (-137)

57.9%

Twitter

4/5 (-125)

55.6%

Fake Polls

1/1 (+100)

50%

Putin

1/1 (+100)

50%

Rigged Election

1/1 (+100)

50%

Sleepy Joe

1/1 (+100)

50%

Clinton

5/4 (+125)

44.4%

Hard Working Americans

2/1 (+200)

33.3%

Bernie

5/2 (+250)

28.6%

Unfit for Office

5/2 (+250)

28.6%

Nobody Thought it was Possible

4/1 (+400)

20%

Are You Kidding Me?

5/1 (+500)

16.7%

Terrific Person

5/1 (+500)

16.7%

Kanye

6/1 (+600)

14.3%

Beautiful Wall

10/1 (+1000)

9.1%

Greatest President Ever

10/1 (+1000)

9.1%

Lock Him Up

10/1 (+1000)

9.1%

Person Woman Man Camera TV

20/1 (+2000)

4.8%

Meghan Markle

25/1 (+2500)

3.8%

Are online betting markets reliable and a good source to use? 

Online sports betting is legal in various states in the United States, however, unfortunately, you can’t legally bet politics. Our data is based on UK betting trends. Even though it’s the US election, it will be one of the biggest betting events not only in the UK but globally. Millions of users will be coming to OddsChecker to find out the odds ahead of the US election in the coming weeks. OddsChecker is regularly used by global publications, including BBC News, Fox News, Washington Examiner plus many more. 

Find out which US bookmakers operate legally in your state

We may not be able to bet on the debate, but our friends over at Draftkings are running a $50,000 Presidential Election debate pool which will add plenty of intrigue to Tuesday night! 

The DraftKings competition is free to enter and the prize pool is a whopping $50,000! Click here to enter! 

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