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2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump And Joe Biden Battle For Key States

The Democrats now have an 88% chance of flipping a Donald Trump state in 2020.
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2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Key States Betting Overview

Joe Biden’s the clear favorite in the 2020 US election odds market, and a key reason attributing to his marketing dominance is the likelihood he will flip a 2016 Donald Trump state. According to online sportsbooks, the Democrats now have a 87.7% chance of flipping a state won by the Republicans in 2016.

Despite Donald Trump making inroads in a few states won by Hillary Clinton, the odds imply he’s only got a 32.8% chance of flipping a Clinton state. We breakdown the percentages below, but Trump’s main chances lie in Nevada, New Hampshire and Minnesota.

As mentioned, Joe Biden tops the US Presidential election betting market, and Biden’s current odds imply he’s got a 66.7% chance of winning the November election.

Despite just over 52% of bookmakers on our UK site cutting the odds of Donald Trump winning the 2020 election in the last twenty-four hours, his odds still imply he’s only got a 34.8% chance of securing another term.

Even though Joe Biden’s odds showcase he’s the likely winner of the 2020 election, online bettors clearly disagree with the sportsbooks. We reported yesterday that Donald Trump accounted for more than double the bets for Joe Biden over the weekend, and this trend continued on Monday.

On Monday, just over 67% of bets placed on the 2020 election market were on Donald Trump winning, with just 29% being placed on Joe Biden.

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2020 US Presidential Election Odds

1US OddsUK OddsImplied % Chance
Donald Trump+18815/834.8%
Joe Biden-2001/266.7%

2020 US Presidential Election Betting

1% Of Wagers on Monday% Of Wagers OctoberTotal % Of Wagers
Donald Trump67%61%53%
Joe Biden29%32%23%

2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump’s Odds Of Flipping A Clinton State

As mentioned previously, online sportsbooks believe Donald Trump has a 32.8% chance of flipping a state previously won by Hillary Clinton. The current odds of him achieving this are hovering around the 2/1 (+205) mark. See below his chances of flipping each state:

1Republicans Odds (UK odds)Democrat Odds (UK odds)% Chance of being flipped
California+1800 (18/1)-3300 (1/33)5.3%
Colorado+900 (9/1)-1200 (1/12)10%
Connecticut+1200 (12/1)-2500 (1/25)7.7%
Delaware+1400 (14/1)-3300 (1/33)6.7%
Hawaii+1600 (16/1)-5000 (1/50)5.9%
Illinois+1200 (12/1)-5000 (1/50)7.7%
Maine+650 (13/2)-1000 (1/10)13.3%
Maryland+1600 (16/1)-5000 (1/50)5.9%
Massachusetts+1600 (16/1)-6600 (1/66)5.9%
Minnesota+300 (3/1)-330 (33/10)25%
Nevada+250 (5/2)-200 (1/2)28.6%
New Hampshire+350 (7/2)-400 (1/4)22.2%
New Jersey+1400 (14/1)-3300 (1/33)6.7%
New Mexico+950 (19/2)-850 (2/17)9.5%
New York+1600 (16/1)-3300 (1/33)5.9%
Oregon+1000 (10/1)-2000 (1/20)9.1%
Rhode Island+1200 (12/1)-5000 (1/50)7.7%
Vermont+1400 (14/1)-5000 (1/50)6.7%
Virginia+900 (9/1)-1600 (1/16)10%
Washington+1200 (12/1)-2500 (1/25)7.7%

In the last ten days, the odds suggest that the Republicans have gathered momentum in Illinois, Minnesota and Nevada. The chances of the Republicans flipping Illinois has moved from 5.9% to 7.7% in this time period. In the same time, the chances of flipping Minnesota have moved from 20% to 25%, and Nevada has gone from 26.7% to 28.6%.

2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Joe Biden’s Odds Of Flipping A Trump State

1Republicans Odds (UK odds)Democrat Odds (UK odds)% Chance of being flipped
Alabama-3300 (1/33)+1800 (18/1)5.9%
Alaska-600 (1/6)+650 (13/2)13.3%
Arizona+150 (6/4)-150 (4/6)60%
Arkansas-1600 (1/16)+1400 (14/1)6.7%
Florida-125 (4/5)+100 (1/1)50%
Georgia-150 (4/6)+130 (13/10)43.5%
Idaho-5000 (1/50)+1600 (16/1)5.9%
Indiana-1200 (1/12)+900 (9/1)10%
Iowa-150 (4/6)+150 (6/4)40%
Kansas-2000 (1/20)+1200 (12/1)7.7%
Kentucky-3300 (1/33)+1400 (14/1)6.7%
Louisiana-3300 (1/33)+1400 (14/1)6.7%
Michigan+275 (11/4)-350 (7/20)74.1%
Mississippi-3300 (1/33)+1400 (14/1)6.7%
Missouri-700 (1/7)+700 (7/1)12.5%
Montana-1400 (1/14)+900 (9/1)10%
Nebraska-3300 (1/33)+1200 (12/1)7.7%
North Carolina+100 (1/1)-125 (41/50)54.9%
North Dakota-5000 (1/50)+1600 (16/1)5.9%
Ohio-200 (1/2)+175 (7/4)36.4%
Oklahoma-5000 (1/50)+1400 (14/1)6.7%
Pennsylvania+210 (21/10)-275 (21/50)70.4%
South Carolina-900 (1/9)+700 (7/1)12.5%
South Dakota-5000 (1/50)+1600 (16/1)5.9%
Tennessee-3300 (1/33)+1200 (12/1)7.7%
Texas-275 (4/11)+250 (5/2)28.6%
Utah-2500 (1/25)+1000 (10/1)9.1%
West Virginia-5000 (1/50)+1600 (16/1)5.9%
Wisconsin+225 (9/4)-275 (21/50)70.4%
Wyoming-6600 (1/66)+1600 (16/1)5.9%

According to the bookmakers, the Democrats best chances of flipping a Donald Trump state are Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Despite it looking a lot more likely Joe Biden will be able to win over a few more key states, his odds have dropped in a selection of Trump states since we last reported on the odds just ten days ago. Below are a few of the bigger moves in that time period.

  • The chance of Alaska being flipped has dropped from 20% to 13.3%.
  • The chance of Florida being flipped has dropped from 57.9% to 50%
  • The chance of Michigan being flipped has dropped from 77.8% to 74.1%
  • The chance of Ohio being flipped has dropped from 44.4% to 36.4%
  • The chance of Pennsylvania being flipped has dropped from 73.5% to 70.4%
  • The chance of Wisconsin being flipped has dropped from 74.1% to 70.4%.

2020 US Election: Betting On Key States

Georgia has been one of the most bet on states heading into the 2020 US election, in the previous seven days, 60% of bets have been on the Republicans winning the state. 

Another popular state has been Arizona, again in the last seven days the Republicans have been the popular bet, accounting for 59% of bets placed in the market. 

The Republicans have also dominated the betting in Ohio, just over 70% of bets placed in the market over the last seven days have been on Donald Trump winning the state. 

The betting in Florida is pretty even, in the last seven days, just under 55% of bets have been placed on the Republicans winning. 

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OddsChecker's data is used by some of the biggest publications in the world, including BCC News, Fox News, Washington Times.


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