2020 US Presidential Election Odds: Joe Biden Massive Favorite Following Projected Michigan Win
Biden’s Odds of Victory Shortest They’ve Been, Following Projected Wins in Michigan, Wisconsin
Following Wednesday’s announcement that Joe Biden is projected to win both Michigan and Wisconsin, a total of 26 key electoral votes, the former Vice President has seen his odds slashed all the way down to -800, implying an 88.9% chance he becomes the 46th President of the United States.
Biden came into Tuesday as the favorite. At 8 am ET on November 3, Biden’s odds sat at -152, implying a 61.9% chance he'd win the presidency. As the day went on, and states like Florida and Texas went to President Trump, Biden’s odds began to lengthen drastically.
On Tuesday night, it seemed like a bit of a longshot that Joe Biden could unseat President Donald Trump. At 11 pm ET, Trump’s -223 odds at UK sportsbooks gave him a 69% chance of winning the 2020 Presidential Election.
But, a strong showing overnight and into the early morning hours of Thursday have gotten us to where we are now. With Biden as the frontrunner with just six states left to decide a projected winner (Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Alaska and Georgia).
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2020 Presidential Election Odds
| Candidate | Odds to Win Election | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | -800 | 88.9% |
| Donald Trump | +600 | 14.3% |
2020 Presidential Election Betting
Somewhat surprisingly, since the announcement of Biden’s projected victory in Michigan, the majority of votes placed on the winner of the 2020 Presidential Election have been backing the longshot, President Donald Trump.
Since reports from CNN and NBC began to flow in that Biden had won Michigan, 53.43% of all bets on the winner of the election have backed the current President, even with his odds as long +600. In comparison, in the 12 hours leading up to the announcement of Biden’s victory in Michigan, 52.75% of votes were in on the former Vice President.
Trump's chances of winning the election reached as high as 69% overnight Tuesday
| Candidate | % of Bets Wednesday Prior to Michigan Announcement | % of Bets Since Michigan Announcement |
|---|---|---|
| Joe Biden | 52.75% | 46.57% |
| Donald Trump | 47.25% | 53.43% |