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Donald Trump Conviction Odds: Oddsmakers Say 99% Chance He's Not Convicted

Will Donald Trump be convicted by the Senate? UK Oddsmakers say no chance
OddsChecker
Fri, February 12, 7:41 PM

Donald Trump Conviction Odds: Oddsmakers Say 99% Chance He's Not Convicted

Former President of the United States Donald J. Trump holds the distinguished honor of being the only US President to ever be impeached twice. To add to his long list of accomplishments, he pulled off that feat in just one term. Now that's efficiency.

This time around, Trump was impeached for the role he played in inciting the deadly riot that took place on January 6 at the United State Capitol. Democrats argue that Trump informed those gathered to support him to march down to the Capitol, while the Donald Trump defense seems to be one centered around moving past what happened.

But, what exactly does that mean? Will he be convicted of a crime? There are a million different people screaming a billion different things. And, like in most of these cases, the oddsmakers will give you the most realistic picture.

Donald Trump Conviction Betting

In order to convict an impeached President of the United States you need a supermajority in the Senate, AKA 67 out of the 100 Senators need to vote in favor.

With the Senate split, it looks unlikely the Democratic Party will be able to convince 17 Republicans to vote to convict Donald Trump, but what are the odds?

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You still can’t bet on US Politics in the United States, but over in the UK the oddsmakers have priced it up. As of Friday, the odds that President Trump are NOT convicted sit at -10000. That means the oddsmakers are almost certain we won’t see a conviction. The implied probability based on those odds is 99%.

The chances of him being convicted, according to the UK betting markets, sit at 1.8% based on +5400 odds.

Donald Trump Conviction Odds

Will Trump Be Convicted? Odds Implied Probability
Yes +5400 1.8%
No -10000 99%
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