2024 Election Odds: Donald Trump's Odds Cut To Win 2024 Election
Donald Trump was acquitted in his impeachment trial this past weekend. Seven Senate Republicans voted to convict Trump but that wasn't enough to see the 45th President get impeached for incitement of insurrection.
Donald Trump celebrated the verdict and Senator Lindsey Graham said that "the Trump movement is alive and well." Bookmakers cut the price of Trump getting reelection in 2024 from 11/1 to 9/1. It could still be tricky for Trump given that he is still without the social media mouthpiece which helped fuel his surprise victory in 2016. If the Trump era has taught us anything it's that you never say never.
2024 Election Betting
As it stands, vice President Kamala Harris is officially the favorite to become POTUS during the next election cycle. Britsh bookmakers list Harris’ odds at +400, odds, implying a 20% chance she is the next resident of the White House.
Joe Biden, is second favorite at +500, with the current President 16/7% likely to have a second term. As mentioned above, Donald Trump is the third favorite at +1100. He's closely followed by Mike Pence, his former VP, is at +1850, despite falling out with Trump.
Elsewhere Nikki Haley continues to be near the summit of the list, but interestingly it is Pete Buttigieg who is shortening, having just become the sixth favorite to win the election in 2024. We also see another continuation of the Trump dynasty, with Ivanka a 50/1 shot.
| Candidate | UK Odds | US Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kamala Harris | 4/1 | +400 | 20% |
| Joe Biden | 5/1 | +500 | 16.7% |
| Donald Trump | 9/1 | +900 | 10% |
| Mike Pence | 37/2 | +1850 | 5.1% |
| Nikki Haley | 20/1 | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Pete Buttigieg | 40/1 | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Ted Cruz | 50/1 | +5000 | 2% |
| Ivanka Trump | 50/1 | +5000 | 2% |
| Tucker Carlson | 50/1 | +5000 | 2% |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 50/1 | +5000 | 2% |
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2024 Republican Presidential Nominee Odds
Despite being cleared of inciteing an insurrection we've seen that Donald Trump's odds have slipped from +440 to +480 that he is the Republican nominee for the 2024 election.
Mitch McConnell has a target of winning back the Senate majority in 2022 and his comment that "some of them may be people the former president likes. Some of them may not be. The only thing I care about is electability,” implies that the Senate Minority Leader is looking at a GOP that may, or may not be led by Trump.
Trump is still heavy favorite to be the Republican candidate however, with a chance of 17.2% that he'll get the nomination, well ahead of his nearest rival Nikki Haley who only has a 11.1% chance.
| Candidate | UK Odds | US Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | 24/5 | +480 | 17.2% |
| Nikki Haley | 8/1 | +800 | 11.1% |
| Mike Pence | 9/1 | +900 | 10% |
| Ron DeSantis | 16/1 | +1600 | 5.9% |
| Ted Cruz | 20/1 | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Ivanka Trump | 20/1 | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Tom Cotton | 20/1 | +2000 | 4.8% |
| Dan Crenshaw | 33/1 | +3300 | 2.9% |
| Josh Hawley | 40/1 | +4000 | 2.4% |
| Mike Pompeo | 40/1 | +4000 | 2.4% |