Canadian Election Odds: Over 54% of Bets on Conservatives

The Canadian Federal election takes place on Monday September 20 and we have the latest betting odds and data
Kyle Newman
Fri, September 17, 6:29 AM EDT

Canadian Election Odds: Bettors Believe Conservative Party Will Take Control

The Conservative Party hasn’t controlled Canada since 2015. Justin Truedeau’s Liberal party has won each of the last 2 elections. However, his party failed to win the popular vote in 2019, and failed to create a majority government. While oddsmakers do believe that the Liberal party will remain in power, bettors aren’t so sure.

Oddsmakers give the Liberals -400 odds to win the most seats in Monday’s election. That equates to an 80% implied chance. They’re followed by the Conservatives who are given +275 odds, or a 26.7% chance.

The New Democrats are third at +5000, or a 2% chance. The Green Party and the Bloc Quebecois are given +20000 odds, or a 0.5% chance. Last is the People’s Party of Canada at +50000, 0.2% chance.

Canadian Federal Election Betting Odds

Party Betting Odds Implied % Chance
Liberal Party -400 80%
Conservative Party +275 26.7%
New Democrat Party +5000 2%
Bloc Quebecois +20000 0.5%
Green Party +20000 0.5%
People's Party +50000 0.2%

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Canadian Election Odds: What Does The Betting Data Say? 

On OddsChecker we analyze the betting data for every major betting event. We look at the total % of bets and where the money has been going to give punters full visibility on the betting markets.  The Canadian election is no different. Though you can't bet on the Canadian Election odds in the US, we've looked at the data from our sister site in the UK. 

European bettors see the election very differently to the oddsmakers. They believe the Conservative party will take control of the Canadian government, with over 54.8% of bets on the party in the last 6 months of betting. 

The Liberals are second in the betting with 37.22% of all total bets on the market. The People’s Party of Canada trails in third with 3.85% of bets. The New Democrats have seen just 2.26% of bets. 1.02% of bets have been placed on the Bloc Quebecois while The Green Party sits last with 0.79% of bets.

Party Total % Of Bets
Conservative Party 54.8%
Liberal Party 37.22%
People's Party 3.85%
New Democrats 2.26%
Bloc Quebecois 1.02%
Green Party 0.79%

Canadian Election Odds: Who Will Win? OddsChecker Verdict

The polls see this as a close race between the Liberals and Conservatives. Oddsmakers don’t. They don’t really think there’s any real chance that the Liberals lose control of the Canadian government. Even if bettors believe there’s a chance that it’ll happen, part of that is likely fueled by the difference in odds rather than any realistic chance.

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