Senate Race 2022: Oddsmakers Believe Ohio Senate Race is Down to Two

Ohio has been a safe red state for a few election cycles now. Very few Democrats can win in the state. As such, oddsmakers believe the state will once again belong to Republicans. They’re given -600 odds or an implied 85.7% chance to retain the seat. Meanwhile, Democrats are given a 17.2% chance to flip the seat.

With oddsmakers so sure that a Republican will win, they turn to the primaries to see who could actually win the seat. For now, oddsmakers believe it’s a two-man race, with two others waiting in the wings.

The favorite is JD Vance, best known for his memoir turned Netflix movie Hillbilly Elegy. Vance is given +135 odds, or an implied 42.6% chance to win the seat. His biggest rival is former Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel. Mandel is given +170 odds, or an implied 37% chance to finally win a senate race.

While those are the clear and obvious favorites, oddsmakers aren’t willing to rule out others. Jane Tamekin, the former chair of the Ohio GOP, is given +325 odds or an implied 23.5% chance of winning the seat. Mike Gibbons, an investment banker, is given +500 odds or an implied 16.7% chance to win the seat.

It’s hard to imagine Gibbons winning the seat. He lost the Republican primary in 2018 by 15.65 points. Josh Mandel is in a similar situation having lost to Sherrod Brown in 2012 and then withdrawing from the primary in 2018 due to a health issue with his wife. That said, Mandel has already won one Senate primary race before, and he’s the early leader in the polls. It wouldn’t be surprising to see both pointed out as losers by their competition.

Timken has the largest local support of any candidate, no surprise given she ran the Ohio GOP, which makes her a strong candidate. JD Vance is without a doubt the biggest national name on the ticket. So what matters more in this primary? Is it national or local recognition? That could determine the outcome.