Senate Race 2022: Oddsmakers Believe Ohio Senate Race is Down to Two

Ohio has been a safe red state for a few election cycles now. Very few democrats can win in the state. As such, oddsmakers believe the state will once again belong to Republicans.
| 4 min read
Share
Share to Facebook
Share to Twitter
Copy Link

Ohio has been a safe red state for a few election cycles now. Very few Democrats can win in the state. As such, oddsmakers believe the state will once again belong to Republicans. They’re given -600 odds or an implied 85.7% chance to retain the seat. Meanwhile, Democrats are given a 17.2% chance to flip the seat.

With oddsmakers so sure that a Republican will win, they turn to the primaries to see who could actually win the seat. For now, oddsmakers believe it’s a two-man race, with two others waiting in the wings.

 logo
Bet $5, Win $100 on the NBA in Virginia
  • Bet $5, Get $100
  • Promo Code WIN100
  • Virginia Sports Betting Exclusive

Claim Your $100 Now
T&Cs
DraftKings logo
Bet $5, Get $150 on the NBA Playoffs
  • NBA Playoff Exclusive
  • 30/1 odds
  • Boosted odds on your team winning!

Claim Your $150 Now
T&Cs
Fanduel logo
$1000 Risk Free Bet
  • Register for a new FanDuel account
  • Deposit up to $1000
  • Get your first deposit matched

Claim Your Risk-Free $1000
New Customers OnlyT&Cs
BetMGM logo
Bet $10, Win $200 If There's A 3-Pointer
  • Deposit $10 into your new BetMGM account
  • Bet $10 on any NBA Moneyline
  • Get $200 if your team scores a three

Claim Your $200 Now
New Customers OnlyT&Cs
Caesars Sportsbook logo
$1100 First Bet Insurance
  • Open a new Caesars Sportsbook account
  • Deposit up to $1100
  • Get your wager insured 100%

Claim Your Insured $1100
New Customers OnlyT&Cs
Unibet New Jersey logo
$250 Risk Free Bet
  • Claim A $250 Risk Free Bet
  • Use On Any Sport
  • New Customers Only

Claim Your $250 Now
T&Cs

The favorite is JD Vance, best known for his memoir turned Netflix movie Hillbilly Elegy. Vance is given +135 odds, or an implied 42.6% chance to win the seat. His biggest rival is former Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel. Mandel is given +170 odds, or an implied 37% chance to finally win a senate race.

While those are the clear and obvious favorites, oddsmakers aren’t willing to rule out others. Jane Tamekin, the former chair of the Ohio GOP, is given +325 odds or an implied 23.5% chance of winning the seat. Mike Gibbons, an investment banker, is given +500 odds or an implied 16.7% chance to win the seat.

It’s hard to imagine Gibbons winning the seat. He lost the Republican primary in 2018 by 15.65 points. Josh Mandel is in a similar situation having lost to Sherrod Brown in 2012 and then withdrawing from the primary in 2018 due to a health issue with his wife. That said, Mandel has already won one Senate primary race before, and he’s the early leader in the polls. It wouldn’t be surprising to see both pointed out as losers by their competition.

Timken has the largest local support of any candidate, no surprise given she ran the Ohio GOP, which makes her a strong candidate. JD Vance is without a doubt the biggest national name on the ticket. So what matters more in this primary? Is it national or local recognition? That could determine the outcome.

OddsCandidateImplied chance
+135JD Vance42.6%
+170Josh Mandel37%
+325Jane Timken23.5%
+500Mike Gibbons16.7%
+12500Matt Dolan0.8%

NFLMLBNBANCAABNCAAFBoxing/MMA
insight

A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

Expert Handicappers

View all Handicappers
0Betslip

Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.