2024 Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump Becomes Bigger Favorite as Odds Worsen
2024 Presidential Election Odds: Donald Trump Becomes Bigger Favorite as Odds Worsen
The latest election odds update isn’t good news for any of the candidates. Every single one of the four favorites saw their odds worsen. That said, Donald Trump still managed to get the best of the change.
The former President saw his odds lengthen from +333 to +400, a change from an implied 23.1% chance to win back the presidency to a 20% chance. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden has dropped from +400 to +520, or a change from 20% to 16.1%. So despite the drop in odds for both, Trump actually gained an implied 1.1% chance over Biden.
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Of course, they’re not the only major candidates. Vice President Kamala Harris has gone from +550 to +1050, a change from a 15.4% chance to an 8.7% chance. Ron DeSantis went from +1100 to +1200, or a change from 8.1% to 7.7%.
The American political climate is so unpredictable right now. Polls show that voters don’t really like either Trump or Biden. Yet, they remain the favorites. Kamala Harris’ odds tanked, unsurprising given how unpopular Biden is. Meanwhile, DeSantis looks to be in for a real fight for the Governor seat in Florida with Charlie Crist. The real answer is, we don’t even know what 2022 is going to look like given how COVID, inflation, and the Ukraine crisis are going to play out. So, it’s flat out impossible to know what the landscape is going to look like in 2022.
| Candidate | Odds | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Donald Trump | +400 | 20% |
| Joe Biden | +520 | 16.1% |
| Kamala Harris | +1050 | 8.7% |
| Ron DeSantis | +1200 | 7.7% |
| Nikki Haley | +2500 | 3.8% |
A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.