Oddsmakers Give Donald Trump 63% Chance to Avoid Indictment

Oddsmakers Give Donald Trump 63% Chance to Avoid Indictment

Oddsmakers got to work after news broke that the New York Attorney General could depose Donald Trump and his children in her civil investigation into the Trump Organization. They don’t believe the former President will face a criminal indictment, but they aren’t certain of that.

Trump is given -170 odds, or an implied 63% chance to avoid indictment. On the flip side, oddsmakers are giving +130 odds, or an implied 43.5% chance that he does get indicted. So, while they don’t believe criminal charges are coming, they certainly aren’t willing to rule anything out.

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What’s interesting is that the news, and the new odds, have only just barely managed to change his odds of becoming President in 2024. Prior to the news breaking, Trump was given +400 odds, but he’s now +410. A change from a 20% chance to regain the presidency to a 19.6% chance.

The odds are interesting in that oddsmakers seem to be trying to get ahead of any potential issues. Of course, the New York AG is not currently pursuing criminal charges, only civil charges against the Trump Organization and not against the Trumps themselves. So unless they perjure themselves it doesn’t feel like any criminal charges are coming.

Similar to the civil suits against Trump University that never led to criminal charges. Anything is possible, but these odds seem to be oddsmakers attempting to get out in front of the news cycle rather than reacting to it. As is evidenced by the fact his odds to win the presidency in 2024 have barely moved.