Arizona Senate Race Odds: Mark Kelly the Slight Favorite To Retain His Seat

Former red state, Arizona has become one of the more interesting purple states on the map. As a result, some have begun to think it’s a blue state, but the 2022 Senate election is really going to put that to the test.

Kyle Newman

Thu, February 24, 5:02 PM EST | 4 min read

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Arizona Senate Race Odds: Mark Kelly the Slight Favorite To Retain His Seat

Arizona has become one of the more interesting purple states on the map. A former red state, Arizona now has two Democratic senators and voted democratic in the last election. As a result, some have begun to think it’s a blue state, but the 2022 Senate election is really going to put that to the test.

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Mark Kelly is given +163 odds, or an implied 38.1% chance to win reelection. Meanwhile, a generic Republican candidate is given +333, or an implied 23.1% chance to take back the seat. This isn’t surprising given that the early polls give Kelly a slim lead within the margin of error.

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Bettors don’t really agree with the oddsmakers. Over the last 90 days, 66.7% of bets have been placed on a Republican winning the seat. Meanwhile, 33.3% of bets have been placed on Kelly to keep his seat.

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It’s going to be hard for Democrats to win in Arizona if current trends continue. In recent years the Latino voters that they used to be able to count on them to carry them in those southwest states are starting to become Independent or even Republican. They can’t win in Arizona if that happens. Joe Biden needed all 61% of those Latino votes in 2020. Losing even 1 or 2% of votes from Latinos may be enough to shift the results, making this a true battleground.