Texas Gubernatorial Race Odds: Greg Abbott Given 86% Chance To Win Reelection

The race for the seat of Governor in Texas is set. The Republicans have nominated sitting Governor Greg Abbott, and the Democrats have nominated Beto O’Rourke. Oddsmakers don’t see this as a particularly close race.
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Texas Gubernatorial Race Odds: Greg Abbott Given 86% Chance To Win Reelection

The race for the seat of Governor in Texas is set. The Republicans have nominated sitting Governor Greg Abbott, and the Democrats have nominated Beto O’Rourke. Oddsmakers don’t see this as a particularly close race.

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Abbott is given -600 odds, or an implied 85.7% chance to win reelection. Abbott isn’t the most popular Governor, but he has seen a recent surge. For the first time since March of 2021, Abbott has a higher approval rating than disapproval.

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That’s not good news for O’Rourke, who has been nominated against a strong Republican incumbent in Texas for a second time, losing to Ted Cruz in 2018. As a result, O’Rourke is given +600 odds, or an implied 14.3% chance to become the first Democrat Governor of Texas since Ann Richards left office in 1995.

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Texas is becoming more purple with each passing election, but it’s hard to see a Democrat winning a nationalized race in Texas in a non-presidential year. It’s not impossible, Laura Kelly and Andy Beshear are Democrat Governors of Kansas and Kentucky, two deep -ed states. Still, Abbott is up 8 points in the early polls and has seen a surge in support early in 2022. So, oddsmakers love for him isn’t surprising in the least.

Next Governor of Texas Odds

CandidateOddsImplied chance
Greg Abbott-60085.7%
Beto O’Rourke+60014.3%

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A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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