2024 Presidential Election Odds: A Year of Odds in Review

The betting on the 2024 US Presidential election began to pick up in February of 2021. A month after Joe Biden’s inauguration. So, it feels fitting to look back at oddsmakers’ top-5 candidates to win the 2024 election and who their odds moved.
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2024 Presidential Election Odds: A Year of Odds in Review

The betting on the 2024 US Presidential election began to pick up in February of 2021. A month after Joe Biden’s inauguration. So, it feels fitting to look back at oddsmakers’ top-5 candidates to win the 2024 election and who their odds moved.

Who Will Be The Next President?

As can be seen from this graph, Kamala Harris has had the worst year by far. In 2021, she was the clear favorite to replace Joe Biden. After being named Vice President many expected Harris to establish herself as a big figure in Biden’s government and grow her star. Instead, she’s done the opposite and it’s had a major effect, as her implied chance to become president has dropped from a high of 22.2% to now sitting at 12.5%, going from first to fourth in the process.

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Meanwhile, Donald Trump has surged. From his once mediocre 10% odds in February of 2021, Trump has more than doubled his chance to become president `now sitting at 26.7%. He’s the clear and overwhelming favorite to win the election.

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Another big winner is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. He began this process with less than a 5% chance to become president, a clear 5th among the top candidates. All he’s seen is steady growth, as he now has a 14.3% chance to win the presidency and sits 3rd on the market ahead of Kamala Harris and now far behind Joe Biden.

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When looking back at the presidential election odds in review, some things are made crystal clear. First, it’s been a bad year for Democrats. Once expected to carry their momentum through to 2024, the President’s party is now in danger of being passed by two candidates who were believed to have little chance just a year ago. Second, Donald Trump still has a hold on the Republican party, even out of office he’s not out of mind. Third, Ron DeSantis' waning support in Florida does not have confidence in him shaken. All of this is to say, that Democrats can’t keep doing what they’re doing and Republicans are likely to continue using the strategies that made Trump so popular. Anything else would be a shocker.

Current 2024 Presidential Race Odds

CandidateOddsImplied chance
Donald Trump+27526.7%
Joe Biden+50016.7%
Ron DeSantis+60014.3%
Kamala Harris+80011.1%
Nikki Haley+18005.3%

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insight

A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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