Ohio Senate Race Odds: Republicans Odds Shorten As Polls Tighten

Oddsmakers don’t seem to care that the polls are tightening in Ohio. Oddsmakers believe that Republicans actually have a better chance of winning the senate seat than they did two months ago.
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Ohio Senate Race Odds: Republicans Odds Shorten As Polls Tighten

Oddsmakers don’t seem to care that the polls are tightening in Ohio. With early voting in the primary beginning, Tim Ryan looks like a real challenger to whoever the Republicans nominate. Yet, oddsmakers believe that Republicans actually have a better chance of winning the senate seat than they did two months ago.

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In early February Republicans were given -600 odds to win the seat, that’s now grown to -633. That’s a change from an implied 85.7% chance to win the seat to an 86.4% chance. Not the biggest of changes, but a clearly noticeable one.

Meanwhile, Democrats have seen their odds lengthen from +480 to +560. That’s a change from a 17.2% chance to an implied 15.2% chance to flip the seat. That 2% change is the largest in any senate race since February 1st.

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The polling says that this race is essentially even, but oddsmakers don’t believe that. If anything they seem to believe that the tight Republican primary is only going to strengthen the winner. The big shock here though is that Democrats have seen their odds lengthen more in this race than either party has seen in any other race over the last two months. So, oddsmakers clearly see shifting tides here that the polls just don’t.

Ohio Senate Race Odds

PartyOddsImplied chance
Republican-63386.4%
Democrats+56015.2%

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insight

A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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