French Presidential Election: Bettors See an Incredibly Tight Race

Oddsmakers and bettors have very different views on the French Presidential election. Oddsmakers see a massive favorite with little chance to lose, while bettors an incredibly tight race.
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French Presidential Election: Bettors See an Incredibly Tight Race

Oddsmakers and bettors have very different views on the French Presidential election. Oddsmakers see a massive favorite with little chance to lose, while bettors an incredibly tight race.

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French Presidential Election Odds

Oddsmakers give Emmanuel Macron -650 odds, or an implied 86.7% chance to win reelection. Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen is given +550 odds, or an implied 15.4% chance to do what she couldn’t in 2017.

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However, the bettors see a tight race. Over the last 24 hours, 51.6% of bets have been placed on Macron to win. That means that Le Pen has seen 48.4% of bets to win the election. That’s a massive shift from 2017 when over 70% of bets were placed on Macron to win the election.

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The 2022 round 1 votes are actually further in Macron’s favor now than they were in 2017. With Macron getting 27.8% of votes in the first round this year compared to 24% in 2017. On the flip side, Le Pen has 23.2% of votes in 2022, compared to 21.3% in 2017. So, it’s hard to see where the confidence in Le Pen that bettors are expressing is coming from. Yet, they continue to believe that she will pull off the massive upset come April 24th.

French Presidential Election Odds

CandidateOddsImplied chance
Emmanuel Macron-65086.7%
Marine Le Pen+55015.4%

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insight

A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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