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Iowa Senate Odds: Oddsmakers Believe Democratic Primary is a Key Race

The Iowa senate race is one that most political pundits don’t believe to be a particularly tight one. However, UK oddsmakers aren’t all seeing eye to eye on the race. Here's a deeper look at the Iowa senate odds.
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Iowa Senate Odds: Oddsmakers Believe Democratic Primary is a Key Race

The Iowa senate race is one that most political pundits don’t believe to be a particularly tight one. However, UK oddsmakers aren’t all seeing eye to eye on the race. In fact, one bookmaker has the race as a virtual tie. Let's take a full look at the Iowa senate odds to get us primed up for this race.

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Iowa Senate Odds

PartyOddsImplied chance
Republican-200095.2%
Democrat+13007.1%

Iowa Senate Odds Breakdown

The majority of the Iowa Senate odds have this race as one that Republicans should win easily. They’re given odds as short as -2000, or an implied 95.2% chance of victory. Meanwhile, Democrats are given odds as long as +1300, or an implied 7.1% chance of victory.

Iowa has leaned Democrat in the last few presidential elections but their Senators in Joni Ernst and Chuck Grassley have been Republican. Will we start to see a transition to the Democratic party?

Although, at least one bookmaker has things even with both Republicans and Democrats given the same -110 odds, or an implied 52.4% chance of victory. Now that we've gone through the Iowa senate odds, what does the Iowa senate betting data have to say?

Iowa Senate Odds - Betting Data

PartyBets%
Republican78.6%
Democrat21.4%

Just like the Iowa senate odds indicate, bettors see Republicans as the massive favorite to win the race. Over the last 90 days, 78.6% of bets have been placed on Republicans to win. Only 21.4% of bets have been placed on Democrats.

So, what’s going on in Iowa? Is the race neck and neck or is it a runaway? Polls would say it depends on who wins the primary for Democrats. Abby Finkenauer is getting crushed in polling against incumbent Chuck Grassley. However, Michael Franken polled within the margin of error against Grassley in April. So, there are some oddsmakers who believe that the Democratic primary could be the difference between a runaway and a competitive race.

As of this morning, the projected winner for the Democrats is Michael Franken. Will we see a shift in the Iowa senate odds after knowing Franked will be representing the Democrats? For now we wait until November but it should be an interesting race to follow over the next few months.

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A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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