US Senate Election Odds: Democrats Now Favored To Take Control of the Senate

Republicans were set to win both chambers in November behind a struggling Democratic party. However, primary results and a shifting political climate due to a few key legislative victories have shifted everything.
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US Senate Election Odds: Democrats Now Favored To Take Control of the Senate

Sportsbooks had believed that a red wave was coming. Republicans were set to win both chambers in November behind a struggling Democratic party. However, primary results and a shifting political climate due to a few key legislative victories have shifted everything.

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US Senate Election Odds

Republicans were given -250 odds to win back control of the Senate, that’s an implied 71.4% chance. Meanwhile, Democrats were given +333 odds, an implied 23.1% chance, to keep control of the Senate. However, overnight the sportsbooks have shifted completely. Democrats are now given -144 odds, or an implied 59.1% chance to keep control of the Senate. Republicans have fallen all the way down to +116 odds, or an implied 46.3% chance.

It's not just the Senate either. Republicans were once given -1000 odds, or an implied 91.9% chance to win the House of Representatives. That’s now down to -500, or an implied 83.8% chance.

So what changed that sportsbooks moved their odds so drastically overnight? Well, a few key Senate races shifted towards Democrats. Democrats are now favored to win Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, sportsbooks see two other formerly uncompetitive races as now too close to call.

Democrats are now given EVEN odds, a 50% chance, to win the senate race in Kansas. Democrats haven’t held a Senate seat in Kansas since George McGill in 1932. They also closed a substantial gap in Ohio and are now given +225 odds, or an implied 30.8% chance to win that seat. They were previously given +560 odds, or an implied 15.2% chance to win the seat.

US Senate Election Odds

PartyOddsImplied chance
Democrats-14459.1%
Republicans+11646.3%

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A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.

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