US House of Representatives Election Odds: Are Democrats Undervalued to Win the House?

US House of Representatives Election Odds: Are Democrats Undervalued to Win the House?

On Tuesday, OddsChecker took to the streets of New York City to ask voters what they thought of the political odds from our UK partners. With a focus on the odds for midterm results and the 2024 Presidential election. The results were surprising.

House of Representatives Odds

First, oddsmakers believe that a red wave is coming in November. Republicans are given -283 odds, or an implied 73.9% chance to win the House of Representatives. Meanwhile, Democrats are given +500 odds, or an implied 16.7% chance to win the House of Representatives.

When presented with these odds, New York voters were quick to say that oddsmakers don’t understand the current landscape of American Politics. One voter told OddsChecker, “Everything changed after Kansas.” That voter is correct, everything did change. Prior to the abortion vote in Kansas, Republicans were given -600 odds or an implied 85.7% chance, while Democrats were given +800 odds or an implied 11.1% chance. So, while Republicans are still very clearly the favorite, the vote in Kansas has changed everything.

Another voter said, “If it was legal I would take the Democrats. They’re way undervalued.” They aren’t alone in that sentiment. Bettors in the UK are thinking the same thing. Over the last 7 days, 67.7% of bets have been placed on the Democrats to win the House majority. Meanwhile, Republicans have seen just 32.3% of bets. That represents a massive shift in betting. In the month of July, Republicans saw 72.6% of bets compared to Democrats' 26.4%.

Perhaps the most surprising though was the fact that not a single voter told OddsChecker that they believed the Republicans were a good bet in 2022. All of them believed that the political climate was shifting towards Democrats and that abortion has changed everything. That said, every person OddsChecker talked to believed that the 2024 Presidential election was a different story.

While the political climate may be shifting towards Democrats right now making the midterms a safer bet, the 2024 election isn’t set in stone. Sportsbooks in the UK currently believe that Donald Trump is the favorite at +340 with Ron DeSantis behind him at +380. Three Democrats trail far behind after that with Joe Biden, +700, Gavin Newsome, +1400, and Kamala Harris, +1650.

One voter told OddsChecker, “I hope the democrats win, but I don’t see a candidate strong enough on this list.” Perhaps that’s why sportsbooks and bettors agree that 2024 is a very different story than the midterms. With no strong Democrats as a candidate, it’s going to be difficult against big national names that generate voter turnouts like Ron DeSantis and Donald Trump.

It should come as no surprise that over the last seven days, 50.1% of bets have been placed on Donald Trump to win 2024. Ron DeSantis is second with 16.8% of the bets. Meaning the two combined make up more than two-thirds of the bets placed. Joe Biden is the top Democrat but he’s seen just 9.3% of bets placed on him.

HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ODDS

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