Senate Betting Odds: 62% of Bets on Republicans to Win the US Senate Midterm Elections

Senate Betting Odds: 62% of Bets on Republicans to Win the Senate Midterm Elections

The books have continued to widen the gap between Republicans and Democrats. Republicans are now given their largest lead on the market since odds on Senate control opened.

Bettors are right there with them.

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US Senate Midterm Election Odds

Republicans are now given -225 odds, or an implied 69.2% chance to win the Senate. Meanwhile, Democrats are given +200 odds, or an implied 33.3% chance to keep hold of the Senate. This continues a swing towards the right that’s been months in the making.

On August 10th, Democrats sat -144 to the Republicans' +116. By October 24th, that lead had vanished as Republicans were given -175 odds to Democrats' +130. On November 2nd, Republicans were given -200 odds to Democrats +192.

Republican Senate Election Odds: Things Look Promising

The biggest reason for the continued push towards the right is the betting. In August, 61.3% of bets were placed on Democrats to hold the Senate, compared to 38.7% of bets on Republicans to flip it. In September, that lead grew as Democrats saw 70.4% of bets to Republicans' 29.6%. Then October came and everything flipped, as 59.7% of bets landed on Republicans to 40.3% of bets on Democrats.

November has seen the Republican lead grow slightly, as 61.9% of bets have been placed on them, while Democrats have seen just 38.1% of bets. That’s the largest lead in the betting Republicans have seen since the summer special elections.

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Democrat Senate Election Odds: Trouble Brewing

UK bettors and sportsbooks clearly don’t care about the early vote count or any “vibes” going on. They’re focused on the polling, which shows it should be a strong year for Republicans. Even if the red wave doesn’t come, Democrats are in jeopardy.

With Republicans likely needing to win just two of Nevada, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania to take control of the Senate, it feels a safer bet with Republicans leading in the polling averages in Nevada and Wisconsin. Republicans also lead in the polling aggregate in Pennsylvania and Georgia, but by less than a point. So, it’s easy to back them winning two of four races their favored to win.

Senate Election Odds