2024 Election Odds: Donald Trump Trails Ron DeSantis with a 23.1% Chance to Win Presidency

The midterm elections killed off most of the thought that Donald Trump would be the head of the Republican party come 2024. Prior to the midterms, Trump was the runaway favorite to win the 2024 election, He was given +210 odds and he had nearly 70% of bets placed on him to win. Now? Sportsbooks see Ron DeSantis as the clear frontrunner, while bettors have never abandoned Trump.

Kyle Newman

Wed, November 16, 10:56 AM EST | 2 min read

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2024 Election Odds: Donald Trump Trails Ron DeSantis with a 23.1% Chance to Win Presidency

The midterm elections killed off most of the thought that Donald Trump would be the head of the Republican party come 2024. Prior to the midterms, Trump was the runaway favorite to win the 2024 election, He was given +210 odds and he had nearly 70% of bets placed on him to win. Now? Sportsbooks see Ron DeSantis as the clear frontrunner, while bettors have never abandoned Trump.

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2024 Election Odds - Trump's Announcement Shifts Odds

Since making his announcement, Trump’s odds of winning the presidency have been slashed form +450 to as low as +333. That’s a change from an implied 18.2% chance to a 23.1% chance. Meanwhile, Ron DeSantis is still given +250 odds, or an implied 28.6% chance to win the presidency. Both are given better odds than any Democrat though, as Joe Biden’s best odds to win the presidency are +400, or an implied 20% chance.

Bettors have a very different view. From election day up until Monday the 14th, Trump had seen 42.6% of bets placed on him to win the 2024 Presidential election. Ron DeSantis was second at 28.5%. President Joe Biden had seen 11% of bets to win a second term. Since Trump’s announcement, he’s seen 50.4% of bets compared to DeSantis’ 20.8% and Biden’s 7.9%.

It may not seem like it, but the big winner in the betting is Ron DeSantis. From November 1st – November 7th, DeSantis was well behind Biden and Trump, he had seen just 9.3% of bets. So for him to now jump Biden into a clear second place with 20.8% of bets, while Trump has fallen from his 58.7% of bets over that span is a major deal. Sure, Trump has seen some bounceback in his betting and odds now that he’s officially declared, but DeSantis will see the same bump if/when he declares to run. There’s a reason the sportsbooks still have DeSantis favored to win both the Republican nomination and the White House in 2024.