2024 Election Odds: Joe Biden Surpasses Donald Trump After Strong Midterm
2024 Election Odds: Joe Biden Surpasses Donald Trump After Strong Midterm
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The fall of Donald Trump on the odds market has been staggering to watch. The Former President had been the clear favorite to win a second term in office from the day the 2020 election ended until the day after the 2022 midterms when Ron DeSantis jumped him. However, he had been well clear of Joe Biden even after falling behind DeSantis. After Herschel Walker’s loss in Georgia though, even that lead has evaporated.
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This time last year, Donald Trump was given +350 odds, or an implied 22.2% chance to win the 2024 election. Joe Biden was given +500 odds and Ron DeSantis was given +1200 odds. After the midterm elections, Trump was given +450 odds, or an implied 18.2% chance to win. Biden was given +600 odds and Ron DeSantis had shot all the way up to +400. Today, Trump’s odds have fallen to +620, or an implied 13.9% chance. Joe Biden sits at +550 and Ron DeSantis at +300.
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Sportsbooks clearly view the stunning midterm election results as a tipping point. One that has the Republican party shifting away from Trump and towards candidates with success in moderate states. Ron DeSantis in Florida is the favorite now, but he’s not the only one. New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu is now given +2000 odds, the third best of any Republican, he was +100000 before the midterms.
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Trump’s fall has continued. Whether it’s the ongoing lawsuits against him and his companies, or it’s the failure of his backed candidates, or his declaring so early despite pressure on his part it’s clear that support for the former President is waning. It’s not just from within his own party, though it’s clear that Trump has fallen behind DeSantis in the eyes of the books. Trump falling behind Biden, an unpopular president with major inflation issues, says a lot about his losses piling up at the end of the year. Now, Trump has overcome greater odds than this, he was +50000 to win the Republican nomination in 2016, but given his status, his continued tumble in the market is one that’s very worth watching.
| Candidate | Odds on 11/9 | Odds today |
|---|---|---|
| Ron DeSantis | +400 | +300 |
| Joe Biden | +600 | +550 |
| Donald Trump | +450 | +620 |
| Christopher Sununu | +5000 | +2000 |
| Gavin Newsome | +1400 | +2000 |
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A PR Associate at @OddsCheckerUS. Available for Podcasts, Radio, and TV. Quoted in Forbes, Chicago Tribune, Sports Illustrated, and more.