Australian Open Odds: Medvedev, Rublev, and Tsitsipas Headline Day 2
Australian Open Odds: Medvedev, Rublev, and Tsitsipas Headline Day 2
The Australian Open is underway without too much fuss or drama. Day 2 is on the cards, and it brings with it a jam-packed schedule as the second half of the draw moves front and center. No.2 seed Daniil Medvedev headlines the day’s action, along with compatriot Andrey Rublev, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andy Murray, and more. In this space, we preview some of the day’s best matchups along with the best tennis picks.
Marin Cilic vs Emilio Gomez
Marin Cilic is coming into the Australian Open with a 4-2 record after playing two warm-up events in Adelaide where he reached the last four both times. Cilic lost to Karin Kachanov in straight sets in his first semi. Then he lost to Thanasi Kokkinakis in three sets in the following week. Cilic is set to open his campaign against Emilio Gomez, a 30-year-old journeyman player. Gomez won three straight qualifiers to make the main draw.
Clearly, this is a mismatch on paper. Cilic is the runaway favorite to win at -1200 with bet365, but at such odds, there’s little value betting on Cilic to win. The best option is found in set betting where Cilic is priced at -163 to in straight sets, while a four-set win is priced at +260 and a five-set win is going for +700.
- Pick: Cilic to win in three at -163 (Bet $163 to win $100)
Andrey Rublev vs Gianluca Mager
High expectations precede Andrey Rublev into this year’s Australian Open, but the Russian is short of match play ahead of the first major of the year. Rublev tested positive for coronavirus late in December, forcing him to pull out of the ATP Cup. Form is a big question mark now, although books are pricing Rublev as the runaway favorite of -2500 to win his opener against Gianluca Mager.
Considering Rublev’s recent bout with covid-19, the market seems excessive. Mager got some match play under his belt at the back-to-back events in Adelaide, reaching the R16 each time. Mager may not be a world-beater, but he might have a slight advantage on form and confidence. An upset isn’t entirely off the cards, but it’s not a bet for the fainthearted. Luca is a tempting +1200 bet to beat Rublev outright. For those on the fence here, a four-set or five-set win, irrespective of the winner, is priced at +275 and +650, respectively, with bet365.
- Pick: Mager to win outright +1200 (Bet $100 to win $1200)
Joao Sousa vs Jannik Sinner
Italian Jannick Sinner is a tennis prodigy, and expectations are high for the 20-year-old Down Under. He’s listed amongst the legitimate contenders in tennis futures to win the Australian Open, which would be quite the feat. Whether Sinner delivers on those lofty expectations, only time will tell.
In the first round, though, recently-minted World No.10 appears to have a straightforward contest against 32-year-old journeyman Joao Sousa. The Portuguese dropped out of the top 100 and is coming off a disappointing 2021 season that saw him go 2-14. One can’t dismiss Sousa entirely. He was once ranked as high as No.26 in the world, meaning he could make things more difficult than the tennis odds would have it. Moreover, Sousa enters the tournament as a lucky loser.
Sinner to win outright is priced at -2000 while to win in three sets is priced at -225 in set betting markets. There is some value in a four-set win by Sinner at +300. That said, betting on a five-set affair irrespective of the winner at +650 may well be the best option. Keep in mind, Sousa is playing with house money as a lucky loser. That could be the catalyst for a run against a young kid that is talented but might still have some way to go in the maturation process at the grand slam level.
- Pick: Five sets +650 (Bet $100 to Win $650)
Click here for the best sportsbook promotions available in your state
Casper Ruud vs Alex Molcan
Norway’s Casper Ruud takes on Alex Molcan in the first round of the Australian Open. It’s the first meeting between Ruud and Molcan, but both come into the tournament with a 2-1 record. Ruud warmed up at the ATP Cup while Molcan played at the ATP 250 Melbourne. The markets are cornered with Ruud, who is the higher-ranked player. Molcan, though, is a bit of a wild card. He beat Andreas Seppi and David Goffin two weeks ago to reach the quarterfinals in Melbourne. The fact that he's already played in Melbourne Park, too, is an advantage. It means he’ll be acclimatized to the courts and the conditions.
- Pick: Molcan to win at +400 (Bet $100 to win $400)
Daniil Medvedev vs Henri Laaksonen
All eyes will be on Daniil Medvedev as he opens his Australian Open campaign against Henri Laaksonen. Medvedev is now the top favorite to win, and underscoring those odds with a solid win will go a long way towards adding value to those odds. Medvedev warmed up at the ATP Cup, where he led Russia to the finals. Journeyman player Henri Laaksonen won’t be a cakewalk, but the Russian should get through.
- Pick: Medvedev to win in three -400 (Bet $400 to win $100)
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Mikael Ymer
Stefanos Tsitsipas gets the primetime slot on Rod Laver Arena for his clash with Mikael Ymer. Tsitsipas owns the 2-0 record over Ymer, including a straight-set win over the Swede at the 2021 Australian Open, 6-4, 6-1, 6-1. Ymer is coming off a solid turnout in Adelaide last week, reaching the quarterfinals where he lost to Kokkinakis 6-7,(11), 6-4, 4-6. Ymer pulling off the upset here would be a stunning feat, especially given the occasion under the lights on Rod Laver Arena. Tsitsipas does come into this tournament a little underprepared and after an injury-riddled second-half of the 2021 season. Ymer might fancy his chances.
Pick: Tsitsipas in four sets +260 (Bet $100 to win $260)
Nikki Adams is a freelance sports writer that’s honed in on the world of sports betting. She joined OddsChecker in 2021 after having covered a number of major American sports, including NFL and NCAAF, for several other publications in the industry. When she’s not looking for the best betting angles and writing engaging and insightful articles, she’s likely on a tennis court or binging on reality TV.