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I found a play that just feels too low, let's trust our gut and drink the juice here. Here is my pick and prediction for the New York Mets vs Houston Astros game tonight.

New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction: Can Houston's Bats Get To Carlos Carrasco?

I found a play that just feels too low, let's trust our gut and drink the juice here. Here is my pick, prediction, and odds for the New York Mets vs Houston Astros game tonight.

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Mets vs. Astros Start Time, Where to Watch, and Odds

  • Date: June 28, 2022
  • Game Time: 7:10 pm ET
  • Where to Watch: TBS, MLB Extra Innings, MLB.TV

Click Here for Mets vs Astros Odds

Mets vs. Astros Line Movement

New York Mets vs Houston Astros Pick

1u - Astros o1.5 Team Total First 5 Innings (-150) (Bet $150 to win $100)

*Odds available at DraftKings at time of publishing*

This number is so low for a team of Houston's caliber. Houston weirdly averages more runs on the road with 4.41 runs per game. Tonight's matchup against Carlos Carrasco feels like a favorable spot. Carrasco just faced Houston in his last start and allowed five runs in just 2.1 innings pitched. The guy could only record seven outs total and now they think he shuts them down to one run or fewer through five? He couldn’t even go half that distance in his last start. This number I had written down at 2.5 so seeing it at 1.5 feels like Christmas morning.

New York Mets vs Houston Astros Prediction

Carrasco has a 4.42 ERA and has allowed 2+ runs in seven of his last nine. Projections have him going exactly five innings and if that's the case it is probably because he got hit a little bit. Two runs isn’t asking for much. Astros have done this in five of their last seven games and the two misses were against Gerrit Cole and Luis Severino, both are much more intimating than Carrasco. Carrasco's ERA being 4.42 is actually a bit inflated because his first two starts were good. He has been especially bad as of late and although he has better home splits I think he gets hit tonight.

Bet $10, Win $200 on any MLB Moneyline

I don’t have any alternatives to suggest if this jumps to 2.5 but I will give more words of encouragement for those who get this at 1.5. Carlos Carrasco's pitching out prop is 15.5 with juice on the under. His earned runs prop is 2.5. Getting Houston to score two runs feels like amazing value when you factor in other markets. My card today has more juice than I’d typically like it to have but everything put out are plays I expect to do well. I know we get picky as gamblers and always want the perfect bet but lately Vegas has been sharper and making us pay up. As we’ve always said, you only pay juice if you lose, let's just make sure we win.

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Article Author


Josh has a knack for picking winning bets, and he specializes in the NFL, NBA, and MLB. As a lifelong Detroit sports fan, he has plenty of time on his hands during playoff season. You can follow him on Twitter at @ThatGuyBets.


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