Today’s MLB Picks:
Orioles @ Blue Jays
Value play with the O's - they won as +160 dogs last night after taking an early 5-0 lead, and have now won three straight after winning consecutive games against the Yankees prior to last night's victory over the Jays. Toronto seems to still be finding their footing and they haven't looked nearly consistent enough to warrant such a high price in my opinion. Marcus Stroman had a great start for Toronto on Opening Day but historically he's never been able to maintain that level of heat for very long, and finished last season with a 5.54 ERA - I'll take the value with Baltimore.
0.5u - BAL Orioles ML @ +170
Astros @ Rangers
The headline of this one is Justin Verlander vs. Shelby Miller - Verlander almost won the Cy Young last season and in the Astros' Opening Day game he pitched 7 innings allowing just one run with 9 K's. Meanwhile, Shelby Miller is on the opposite side of the pitcher spectrum from Verlander, as he'll make his first start for the Rangers after going 0-4 with a revoltingly bad 10.69 ERA in four starts with Arizona last season. Houston's lineup is one of the best in the league and I think they'll feast on Miller while Verlander stands strong on the mound.
0.5u - HOU Astros -1.5 @ -137
Mets @ Marlins
This is my biggest play of the day - two pitchers who are both fade material in my opinion face off in a game with a relatively low total given the circumstances. Jason Vargas will make his season debut after a disappointing 2018 season which he ended with an ugly 5.77 ERA. He's liable to give up a ton of runs on any given night, and so is Jose Urena who will start for Miami tonight after giving up 5 ER over 4.2 IP in his first start last week. The Mets have scored 25 runs over their first 4 games and their offense is showing some real pop, and I love the over in this one with the total at just 8 runs.
1u - Over 8 Total Runs @ -115
Rockies @ Rays
The Rays have gone under this total in 4 of their first 5 games so far this season with the only outlier going over by just a half run. They're starting Blake Snell who had a rough performance in the opener but given his performance last season (21-5, 1.89 ERA), I don't expect to see more of the same tonight as he should tighten up his stuff. On the other hand, the Rockies are starting Kyle Freeland who allowed just 1 run over 7 IP in his opener against Miami, and he's coming off a super impressive 2018 as well and I like the under in this game as neither offense is super powerful (especially the Rays), and both pitchers are accustomed to quality starts.
0.5u - Under 7.5 Total Runs @ -129
Twins @ Royals
The Twins and Royals face off in a battle of AL Central rivals as both teams are coming off of series wins - however, the Twins beat the Indians while the Royals beat the White Sox, so I'd argue Minnesota's series victory was the more significant of the two. Jose Berrios will start for Minnesota after pitching 7 shutout innings with 10 K's in Minnesota's Opening Day victory en route to setting the Twins' Opening Day record for strikeouts in a game and Minnesota is primed for victory anytime he takes the mound.
0.5u - Minnasota Twins ML @ -132
Diamondbacks @ Padres
These teams cashed their over easily last night in a 10-3 D'backs victory, and each of Arizona's five games has now gone over this total coming into tonight's game. Zack Greinke looked horrible in his first start last week, allowing 7 ER in just 3.2 IP with 4 HR to boot and he'll be on the mound again tonight for the D'backs. He'll face Eric Lauer who posted a 6-7 record alongside a 4.34 ERA last season and I like this game to go over the total once again.
0.5u - Over 7.5 Total Runs @ +100
Angels @ Mariners
The Mariners have been a huge surprise so far in the early days of the season, going 6-1 thus far and taking a 4-game series from the powerful Red Sox along the way. They beat the Angels in a decisive 6-3 victory at home last night, and Marco Gonzales will start for them tonight after winning both of his first two starts this season. He went 3-0 with a 3.34 ERA in six starts against the Angels last season and will look to continue his mastery of them - Los Angeles has scored just 12 runs in their first 5 games as their offense has had an anemic start to the season, and I like Seattle to continue their hot run while the Angels are still getting things figured out.
0.5u - SEA Mariners @ -120