MLB Picks & Parlays - Wednesday 04/10
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Death, taxes, and the under in Indians games when Trevor Bauer's on the mound. The 2018 Cy Young contender has allowed just one hit in 14 IP this season and has posted a 0.64 ERA with 17 strikeouts in two starts. The Tigers will be lucky to notch more than a few runs in this one, and they'll start Matthew Boyd who has been solid so far this season, and is coming off an outing against the Yankees where he allowed just 1 run against a powerful offense - the Indians are averaging just 3.8 runs per game this season while the Tigers have scored the fewest runs in the league so far, and I'm liking the under in this one.
1u - Under 7 Runs @ -105
The Rays have had a red-hot start to the season, as they currently lead the AL East and have won three in a row after trouncing the White Sox 10-5 last night. They'll start Tyler Glasnow, who's had a remarkable start to his season as the 25-year-old has allowed just 1 run across 11 IP. Tampa Bay allows the fewest runs in the MLB while the White Sox allow the 2nd-most in comparison, and will start Reynaldo Lopez who has posted a 10.00 ERA in two starts this season - the White Sox have lost 4 in a row and I'm not overthinking this one, as I expect the Rays to complete the sweep today.
1u - TB Rays -1.5 @ +100
The Marlins have scored just 7 runs in their last 4 games, as their offense has looked anemic up to this point and I don't expect things to get any better against Tyler Mahle who pitched 6 scoreless innings against the Pirates in his 2019 debut. These teams are both in the bottom 6 in scoring so far this season, and I doubt Cincinnati will repeat last night's performance against Trevor Richards, who's posted a 3.00 ERA in two starts this season.
1u - Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -120
Nationals @ Phillies
This is already the fifth time these two teams have faced each other this season, and in those first four games the average total was 12.5 runs as both offenses were hungry - some great baseball to watch in a rivalry that is at its peak since the Bryce Harper signing. Hellickson will pitch against his old team after he pitched in relief last week against the Phillies and allowed 2 ER in just 2 IP, and also allowed Bryce Harper a massive dinger. Nick Pivetta will pitch for Philadelphia, and he's posted a 6.52 ERA in 2 starts and has gone 1-4 with a 9.93 ERA in his career against Washington.
1u - Over 9 Total Runs @ -115
Twins @ Mets
Jake Odorizzi will take the mound for Minnesota after a revolting outing against the Phillies in which he allowed 4 ER and had to be removed before the end of the first inning. The Mets have scored the 5th-most runs in the league so far this season and I expect them to feast on Odorizzi. I think this total is really low, and I know Thor is on the mound for the Mets but he has yet to settle in this season and has a 4.50 ERA after two starts - the Twins scored 14 runs last night when DeGrom started (allowing 6 runs in his 4 IP) and I just think 7 runs is too low of a total for this matchup.
1u - Over 7 Runs @ -120
I've got two plays for this game, as I think one side has a ton of value and also that the total is far too low. The Cubs have scored the 3rd-most runs in the MLB so far and the total in their games has gone over 7 in 10 of their last 11. Yu Darvish has posted an 8.10 ERA so far this season and hasn't won a game in almost a year - I'm loving the over in this one.
1u - Over 7 Runs @ -120
I was really surprised when I saw the price on this game this morning, especially considering that the Cubs are 3-7 and Yu Darvish has looked really bad recently. He hasn't lasted longer than 4 innings in a start yet this season, and I think there's heavy value in the Pirates' line, as they've won 4 of their last 5 games and will start Jordan Lyles, who pitched 5 scoreless innings in his 2019 debut. Chicago and Darvish just haven't proven themselves enough to justify this juiced of a line.
1u - PIT Pirates ML @ +152
Seattle has been arguably the biggest surprise of this early stage of the 2019 season, as they're 11-2 and have won 4 straight, with 2 of those against the Royals team they're facing tonight. Kansas City is just 2-8 and will start Heath Fillmyer, who pitched in AAA until yesterday and will make a spot start against a Mariners offense that is 1st in the league in scoring. I think this line should be far more juiced and will be taking the value in the run-line as I expect Seattle to cruise to victory.
1u - SEA Mariners -1.5 @ +100