MLB Picks & Parlays - Friday 04/12
We've gone big today with 9 picks and our first 2 unit play of the season!
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
This is a monstrous total that I believe is far too high for this game - it's been cold in Chicago and will continue to be today, and the ball isn't going to travel as well off the bat. The Cubs just played a series here in Wrigley against the Pirates and the total didn't go over 10 runs in any of those games - there's a wind blowing straight towards the outfield at the moment but I don't think that alone warrants such a high total. They'll start Cole Hamels against the Angels, and after a rough outing against his former team, he tightened up allowing 2 ER over 6 IP to the Brewers after posting a 2.36 ERA with the Cubs last season. Tyler Skaggs will take the mound for Los Angeles and he has yet to allow more than 2 ER in an outing this season, and keep in mind the total has only gone over 10 runs twice so far in the Angels' first 13 games.
1u - Under 10.5 Total Runs @ -104
Watch out - the Rays are looking legit. They're now 10-3 as their pitching has been absolutely off the wall, allowing just 2.0 runs per GAME so far this season. They've now won 4 straight after sweeping the White Sox, outscoring opponents 27-7 in that span. Meanwhile, the Jays have lost 5 of their last 6 games and I just don't think their offense has the firepower necessary to get past the stalwart Tampa Bay pitching right now.
2u - TB Rays ML @ -142
Also liking the under in this game for reasons that should be pretty clear - the Rays' pitching has been driving their games under, and their games have gone under 8.5 runs in 10 of their 13 games. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are bottom 5 in the league in scoring and they're starting Trent Thornton on the mound, who has allowed just 2 ER over 10 IP so far in his first couple MLB starts.
1u - Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -112
Value play here - I just don't think a Red Sox team with a struggling Eduardo Rodriguez on the mound should be favored this heavily against anyone right now. They're 4-9 and obviously these struggles are going to go away at some point in the near future, but right now they're having trouble even beating poor and average teams. Rodriguez has allowed a combined 11 earned runs in his first two starts, while David Hess for the O's has posted a 2.70 ERA with 10 K's in 2 starts - I'm making a small play on the dogs.
0.5u - BAL Orioles ML @ +210
Phillies @ Marlins
Jesus, the Marlins are bad - they scored just 1 run combined in the Reds' series sweep of them, and the total in their games has gone under in 5 of their last 6. They've scored the 2nd-fewest runs in the MLB up to this point and face a Phillies team who has had some offensive struggles of their own recently, putting up just 15 runs in their last 5 games. Sandy Alcantara will pitch for the Marlins and he's allowed 2 ER over 12 IP in 2 starts, and will face Jake Arrieta who has also looked solid so far.
1u - Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -110
Mets @ Braves
I'm loving the over in this one, as we have a matchup of two struggling pitchers against two offenses that are top-5 in scoring in the league so far this season. Zach Wheeler allowed 4 ER in his season debut against the Nats and followed that up by allowing 7 ER to them the next week, and he'll face a Braves offense that's scored 22 runs in their last 4 games. Meanwhile, rookie Kyle Wright will oppose him for Atlanta and I think he'll have a tough time with the surging Mets bats, as New York is averaging 7.2 runs per game in their last 5.
1u - Over 9 Total Runs @ -125
Stayed off the Indians under for once yesterday and am kicking myself for it as they beat the Tigers 4-0, and I'm back on it again as Cleveland has benefited from some strong pitching this season to allow the 2nd-fewest runs in the league. They'll start Carlos Carrasco and while he struggled in one start this season he still has great stuff - remember he went 17-10 with a 3.38 ERA last season. He'll face Brad Keller for the Royals who after posting a 3.08 ERA last season has delivered 3 solid starts allowing 6 ER combined with 13 K's.
1u - Under 7.5 Total Runs @ -110
I'm a bit surprised that the total is only at 8 runs in this one, as both of these teams have had success on offense so far this season. The Dodgers have been especially prolific averaging 6.9 runs per game so far this season which is pretty wild, and they'll face Corbin Burnes, a reliever last season who has started games twice already this season, allowing 11 ER and 6 HR in those games. They're starting Julio Urias, who after a strong debut to the season lasted less than 4 innings in his next outing, being pulled after allowing 4 hits, 4 walks, and 3 ER with just 2 K's.
1u - Over 8 Total Runs @ -120
This should be the game of the night - Seattle continues to be the surprise of the 2019 season, having set a record for homering in each of its opening 15 games and will look to keep that streak alive in this one, as they lead the MLB in scoring with almost 8 runs scored per game. Meanwhile, after a slow start to the season the Astros have now rattled off six wins in a row, averaging 6 runs per game in that streak, and this game has the potential to turn into a slugfest.
1u - Over 9 Total Runs @ -111