MLB Picks & Parlays - Saturday 04/13
Another big slate, and another 9 picks!
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Tigers @ Twins
It's a cold one in Minnesota with temperatures dipping into the low 30s today, and the ball isn't going to travel as much. This will pose a problem to a Tigers offense that is already prone to dry spells and scores the tied-fewest runs in the league so far this season. Both pitchers have had solid starts to the season with ERAs of 2.25 or lower, and the Twins' offense hasn't played in three days now after yesterday's game got postponed. Lot of contributing factors here and I'm liking the under.
1u - Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -115
Tampa continued their fiery start to the season last night handing us a W on our first 2u play of the season. They've now outscored opponents 38-14 on their current five-game win streak and have covered -1.5 in each of their 11 wins. Ace Blake Snell will pitch for the Rays and he's allowed just 1 ER in his last 13 IP with 24 strikeouts, and it's going to be hard for a Toronto team that's won just 1 of its last 7 games to get away with this one.
1.5u - TB Rays -1.5 @ -129
Again, also liking the under in this game for reasons that should be pretty clear - their games have gone over 8 runs in just 4 of their last 14 games. Blake Snell is an absolute machine, and I'd be surprised if the Blue Jays make it to 3 runs in this one and don't foresee any more than that. Clay Buchholz is making his debut for Toronto after posting an impressive 2.01 ERA in 16 starts with Arizona last season, and this one should be pretty low-scoring.
1u - Under 8 Total Runs @ -110
Last night's game in this series was a wild one, as they went 18 innings and used up 23 relievers combined between the two teams, and today's game starts just 13 hours after last night's game ended. The pitching staff on both sides is going to be pretty wiped, and things have potential to get out of hand once the bullpens come into play and I like the over on a low total for those reasons.
1.5u - Over 7 Total Runs @ -102
The Marlins have now put up just 2 runs in their last 4 games as their offense has looked alarmingly anemic. They got walloped 9-1 by the Phils last night and will face a red-hot Zach Eflin on the mound today. Eflin's won both his 2019 starts allowing just 1 ER in 12 IP with 14 strikeouts and just 1 walk. His command has looked sharp and I expect him to get some run support from the loaded Phillies lineup against the mediocre pitching of Caleb Smith.
1.5u - PHI Phillies -1.5 @ +100
Welcome to Mexico - temperatures are going to get into the 90s in Monterrey with a strong wind blowing directly to center-field, and it's going to be a batter's game. Even with a total of 10.5 runs, I'm feeling confident that both teams are going to be able to score in bunches tonight, especially given the pitching matchup as an aging Adam Wainwright (4.50 ERA) who has a 5.09 career ERA against the Reds will face a struggling Tanner Roark (5.79 ERA, 1.93 WHIP) who has a horrid 6.58 ERA against the Cards in his career.
1u - Over 10.5 Total Runs @ -120
It's a rare day to bet on an Indians over, but today is that day - Homer Bailey is a human recipe for runs and he's facing the young Jefry Rodriguez who was recently called up from the minor-leagues to replace the injured Mike Clevinger. Rodriguez posted a 5.71 ERA last season for the Nats and I don't remotely trust either of these pitchers - remember Homer Bailey went 1-14 last year with a 6.09 ERA, and is coming off an outing in which he gave up 7 ERs. Take the over.
1u - Over 9 Total Runs @ -111
Liking the over in this matchup again - it cashed easily for us last night in an 8-5 Brewers win, and these are two top-10 offenses who can both score in bunches. The Dodgers are second in the league in scoring and are spot starting Caleb Ferguson on the mound, as Hyun-Jin Ryu is injured so Ferguson is starting despite not having pitched more than 1.1 IP in a game this season - it's essentially a bullpen game for the Dodgers, and I expect more of the same as what we saw last night in this one.
1u - Over 9 Total Runs @ -110
Another game of the night - as expected, last night's matchup turned into a total slugfest as the Astros took it 10-6. Seattle continues to be the surprise of the 2019 season, having set a record for homering in each of its opening 15 games and will look to keep that streak alive in this one, as they lead the MLB in scoring with almost 8 runs scored per game. Meanwhile, after a slow start to the season the Astros have now rattled off six wins in a row, averaging 6 runs per game in that streak, and this game has the potential to turn into a slugfest. The total has gone over 8.5 in 8 straight Mariners game and with King Felix on the mound, the Astros could even cover the over by themselves again in this one.
1u - Over 8.5 Total Runs @ -110