Friday brings with a brand-new set of matchups for us to consider. It also brings us a full 15-game slate, with 14 of those in the evening.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Braves @ Cardinals
2019 looks very different to 2018 for the two pitchers in this game. Both Miles Mikolas and Mike Foltynewicz had impressive numbers last season. That has not been the case this year. Mikolas has a 4.88 ERA and seven last time out against the Rangers. However, prior to that start in hitter friendly Texas things were starting to look better. Mikolas had allowed a tota of three earned runs in his last three starts, spanning 20 innings. The return from injury has not been a smooth one for Foltynewicz, who has a 6.91 ER in five starts. However, he had more success last time out against the Brewers, and things might just be starting to click together. The ERA numbers for these two scream to take the over, but the talent level and the recent improvements we have seen tell me the under is the play here.
1u - Total Under 9.5 @ -110
White Sox @ Twins
This looks like a perfect game for a Jose Berrios bounce back. After allowing nine earned runs combined in his last two outings he gets to face a team who rank 20th in runs and 19th in home runs and slugging percentage. On the other side is Reynaldo Lopez, who has had a mixed season. When he has faced teams with poor offenses he has succeeded. However, in his starts against Boston, Tampa Bay and Seattle, he has allowed six, eight and six earned runs respectively. The Twins offense might be the best yet, ranking first in runs scored and second in home runs and slugging.
1u – MIN Twins -1.5 @ +100
Mariners @ Athletics
I do not love backing Wade LeBlanc after he allowed seven earned in just 2 1/3 innings last time out, but it was his first start after returning from injury and he was solid prior to that injury. Additionally, Daniel Mengden is no sure thing either, he allowed four earned runs first time out against the Indians, but bounced back nicely against Detroit. Seattle’s offense is significantly better than either of those teams, ranking second in runs and home runs, as well as fourth in slugging. This season, the Athletics are covering the spread just 42% of the time at home or as favorites. In contrast, the Mariners are covering the spread 54% of the time on the road and 58% of the time as underdogs.
In fact, I am going to double on this game and look at the total as well. Both LeBlanc and Mengden could be hit hard in this game, which should make it interesting. On the road this season, the Mariners score an average of 5.52 runs per game, and allow an average of 5.31.
1u – SEA Mariners +1.5 @ -142
1u – Total Over 9.5 @ +100
By Ben Rolfe