Tuesday brings a 15-game slate and some intriguing matchups. It also brings some interesting potential plays from a gambling perspective.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Padres @ Yankees
This line stood out to me immediately because it seems high for the odds. A matchup between Matt Strahm and the Yankees bullpen produced seven runs on Monday, and this is arguably a better pair of pitchers. Masahiro Tanaka owns a 2.94 ERA and has allowed just four earned runs in his last four starts. Eric Lauer has allowed two or less earned runs in five of his last six outings. The one bad outing in the middle was a trip to Coors, where we can forgive his struggles. Five of the last six games in Yankees Stadium have seen less than nine runs scored, and the under has hit 7-of-12 times when the line has been in this region.
1u - Under 9.5 Total Runs @ -129
Cardinals @ Phillies
This is a fascinating game because it sees the return of Nick Pivetta to the Phillies rotation. Pivetta was terrible to start the season, allowing 17 runs in 18 1/3 innings across four starts in March and early April. Since then he has been at Triple-A where he has been impressive. In six starts he has a 4-1 record, a 3.41 ERA and 12.16 strikeouts per nine. The 20 walks in 37 1/3 innings is a concern but this line is set as if Pivetta is a train wreck. On the other side Adam Wainwright is having a mixed season, but he is not a train wreck either. The Phillies average 0.93 runs per game at home in the first innings, so if Wainwright gets through that this could be a relatively ow scoring game.
1u - Under 10.5 Total Runs @ -113
Brewers @ Twins
This is one of the more unexpected good pitching matchups of the season. Martin Perez came into this season with his career hanging by a thread. However, in 2019 he has been good, with a 2.95 ERA, and allowing more than three earned runs just once. Additionally, in four home starts this season, Perez has allowed just five earned runs in 25 innings. Zach Davies has been equally impressive. His ERA is only 2.43 because the Reds scored six earned in three innings in his last outing. His 6.14 strikeouts per nine are a concern, because he is relying on his defense to get him outs. However, on the road he has been good this season, allowing seven earned runs in 29 innings. This should be an unexpectedly fun pitching matchup to watch.
1u - Under 9.5 Total Runs @ -104
Royals @ White Sox
After a rough start Lucas Giolito has been incredible. The young pitcher has a 2.77 ERA, thanks in large part to allowing just five earned runs in his last five starts, spanning 33 1/3 innings. Meanwhile on the other side Brad Keller has had a rough season, allowing four or more earned runs in four of his last six starts. Trusting the White Sox offense is not something I am particularly comfortable doing. However, the way Giolito is pitching right now it is hard to look anywhere other than a convincing win for the White Sox.
1u – CHI White Sox -1.5 @ +130
By Ben Rolfe