A 14-game slate awaits us Wednesday, with four afternoon games as appetisers before the main course takes to the mound at 6.10 pm with the Red Sox hosting the Indians.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Rangers @ Mariners
This game screams to take the over on the total for a few reasons. Firstly, let’s look at the two pitchers taking to the mound. Drew Smyly has a 6.15 ERA this season, and has allowed nine earned runs in his last 14 2/3 innings. Wade LeBlanc has a 7.33 ERA and has allowed 11 runs in 7 1/3 innings since returning to the rotation. The stats are also on the side of the over. The Rangers scored and allow around 5.5 runs per game on the road, and the Mariners score 4.6 but allow a whopping 6.5 runs per game at home. Overall this season, the over has hit 69% of the time in Mariners games and 54% of the time in Rangers games.
1u - Over 10 Total Runs @ -104
Indians @ Red Sox
I would feel more confident about this pick if I was getting a run with the Indians, but this game is essentially being treated a pick ‘em type game and rightly so. Ryan Weber takes the mound for the Red Sox, after an impressive start against the Blue Jays. However, shutting down the Blue Jays is one things, but doing it to the Indians will be tougher, especially as they appear to enjoy hitting in Fenway Park with 12 runs scored in the last two games. Additionally, the Indians dealt a lot of damage to the Red Sox bullpen last night, so there will not be a lot of fresh reinforcements if Weber struggles. Meanwhile, Shane Bieber has a 3.11 ERA for the Indians, has struck out 25 in his last 14 innings, and has allowed more than three earned runs just twice this season.
1u – CLE Indians ML @ +105
Cardinals @ Phillies
This game is a massive pitching mismatch, between an established ace and a rookie making his major league debut. What makes it even worse is the way that Genesis Cabrera has been pitching in the minors. At Triple-A, Cabrera has allowed 28 runs in 39 2/3 innings, allowing 19 walks and 11 home runs. Meanwhile, Aaron Nola has recovered from his tough start in a big way. The Phillies right-handed pitcher has allowed three or less earned runs in his last seven starts, allowing just one earned in four of those. The Phillies offense has not been convincing this season, but they have been impressive in the first innings of games. If they can get a lead early here, then I like Nola and the bullpen to keep them ahead.
1u – PHI Phillies -1.5 @ +118
Diamondbacks @ Rockies
Another pitching mismatch in this game, as the Diamondbacks desperately look to avoid getting swept in Colorado. Robbie Ray is having a strong season, and has a very good record in Colorado. In six career starts he has a 3.69 ERA, striking out 39 and allowing just 13 earned runs in 31 2/3 innings. The Diamondbacks being favorite makes this a less tempting selection, but Jeff Hoffman has really struggled this year. In two home starts, including one against the Orioles, he has allowed nine earned runs in 10 innings, giving him an 8.10 ERA. The Diamondbacks are better offensively than either of the two teams he has faced and should be able to deal plenty of damage to him in this one.
1u – ARI Diamondbacks ML @ -125
By Ben Rolfe