A very quiet day Monday for the MLB, with just four games. However, there is still some nice value to be found despite the reduced slate.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Astros @ Mariners
Picking any over with the Astros always feels risky because despite being one of the highest scoring teams in the majors the under hits 58% of the time. That is largely due to the quality of their rotation as a while, but today might just be the exception. Corbin Martin is in his rookie season and has allowed 10 earned runs in just 16 1/3 innings this season. On the other side we have Wade LeBlanc, who has allowed 14 earned runs in 12 1/3 inning since returning to the team. My initial instinct was to take the over for five innings at 5.5. However, given it is only four runs more for the full game I will take the over on the full game at 9.5.
1u – Over 9.5 Total Runs @ -105
Phillies @ Padres
A total at 7.5 is always a bit of a nightmare, because there is so little margin for error. The reason for the line is usually because there are two good pitchers on the mound, but such a low total can almost go over by chance. However, the under is still my pick here. Eric Lauer has allowed just three earned runs in his last 18 innings. Aaron Nola is having a great recovery after a tough start, allowing over one earned run just twice in the last seven outings. Additionally, the weather in San Diego looks like it will be conducive to a low scoring game, with the wind blowing in from left field.
1u – Under 7.5 Total Runs @ -110
By Ben Rolfe