After a quiet day Monday with the draft taking place, we have 14 games taking place on Tuesday. Hopefully the nice weather around the country can lead to plenty of runs being scored.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Giants @ Mets
Go back and year or so and no one would believe you if you said to take the over in a matchup between Madison Bumgarner and Noah Syndergaard. However, things have changed drastically in 2018, as both have an ERA over four. Syndergaard has allowed at least three earned runs in seven of his 10 starts this season, including nine earned in 11 1/3 innings over his last two starts. Bumgarner has a similar story, allowing three or more earned in six of his 10 starts. To make matter worse for both pitchers the wind is expected to be blowing hard out to right field in today’s game. My recommendation is to play safe with the line below, as both pitchers do have a lot of talent. However, there is decent chance we see 10-plus runs in this game, so there may be added value at the higher lines.
1u – Over 7.5 Total Runs @ +118
Twins @ Indians
This game brings us a fascinating clash of the two main AL Central contenders. It also brings a massive clash of styles offensively. The twins are the highest scoring team in the majors, and rank first in both home runs and slugging. In contrast, the Indians rank 26th in runs, 25th in home runs, and 29th in slugging. The Twins will be trying to give Shane Bieber back-to-back bad games, after he allowed six earned runs in Boston last time out. The Twins will be starting rookie pitcher Devin Smeltzer, for his first major league start. He has been solid in the minors, but has struggled for strikeouts at Triple-A. The Twins have hit the over in 66% of their road games when the line is at 9 or 9.5. Indians games do struggle to hit the over, with the under hitting nearly 60% of the time. However, between the Twins offense, the wind expected to be blowing out, and a rookie pitcher, the over has a good chance to hit.
1u – Over 9.5 Total Runs @ +120
Red Sox @ Royals
I am hoping for a high scoring Tuesday as this is game represents a chance for another over. The line here is high but rightly so. Eduardo Rodriguez comes into the game with a 5.04 ERA and allowed 11 earned combined against the Rockies and Blue Jays in two of his last three games. He bounced back against the Astros and has had some strong games in the last five. Glenn Sparkman takes to the mound for the Blue Jays, with his 4.21 ERA. He is only likely to go four or five innings at most, and then he will hand over to a bullpen with a lot of high ERA pitchers. This is another game where the weather is also going to play a part. It is expected to be warm in Kansas City, with the wind blowing out to left field. This game could be a lot of fun to watch.
1u – Over 10.5 Total Runs @ +108
Reds @ Cardinals
Sticking with the trend of weather assisted games the Cardinals and Reds game has the potential to have plenty of runs scored. The temperature is going to be a toasty 84OF and the wind is going to be blowing out towards left field. The big advantage here is that the line is low, because Luis Castillo is on the mound for the Reds. Castillo has a 2.45 ERA on the season but has allowed eight earned runs over his last three starts, so there have been some signs of cracks appearing. On the other side is rookie pitcher Genesis Cabrera, making just his second start. He was tagged for five runs, with three earned, over 3 2/3 innings last time out. This line is just at the point where I can see it creeping over, despite the Reds being the worst in the league when it comes to hitting the over.
1u – Over 8.5 Total Runs @ -121
By Ben Rolfe