Wednesday brings us yet another full set of games, with three games in the afternoon slate, and the remainder taking place in the evening.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Braves @ Pirates
Pittsburgh home games this season have been one of the safest overs to bet in the majors. Out of 29 home games, the over has hit a whopping 20 times. In games with lines of either 9-or-9.5, the over is 8-1. This matchup sees Kevin Gausman, fresh off an eight earned run outing in Milwaukee, taking on Joe Musgrove, and his 4.57 ERA. Musgrove, has allowed three of more earned runs in four of his last five outings, including 11 in his last two home games against the Dodgers and Brewers. The only caveat to this game is there has been some talk of rain, which could dampen the scoring a little. However, right now the over looks like a solid bet as always in Pittsburgh.
1u – Over 9.5 Total Runs @ -104
Red Sox @ Royals
It’s going to be another scorching hot day in Kansas City for this matchup, and hopefully we see plenty of runs scored again. In fact, right now runs are being scored in Kauffman Stadium at an impressive rate. The last four games played at home by the Royals, have seen an average of 11.75 runs per game scored. This one is interesting because Chris Sale is on the mound for the Red Sox, but this is not the Sale of old. This season, he has a 1-7 record with a 4.35 ERA, and has had some struggles at times. On the other side is Jakob Junis, who has been wildly inconsistent. However, in his last four home starts he has allowed three or more earned runs four times. With the weather, and the inconsistency of both pitchers, the over looks an interesting play in this one.
1u – Over 8.5 Total Runs @ +100
Astros @ Mariners
This has been a fascinating series so far, with the Astros coming away with the first two games. The third game sees Brad Peacock and Mike Leake take to the mound, with both having slightly contrasting seasons. Peacock has been quite impressive, allowing just three earned runs in 29 innings over his last five starts. Leake has actually been quite impressive at home recently, allowing just two or less earned runs in three of his last four starts in Seattle. This season, Seattle’s main calling card has been their offense, but they have struggled to put serious runs scoring together in the last week or so. Over the last six games they average 3.33 runs per game. The Astros are another good offense, but they are hampered by injuries right now, so the 11 runs we saw them score last night is the exception not the norm.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -116
By Ben Rolfe