With just one early game on Friday, as the Cubs host the XXX, we have a jam packed and exciting slate of baseball in the evening.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Diamondbacks @ Blue Jays
This is a somewhat interesting game up in Toronto, as the Diamondbacks head there hoping to get back above .500. However, they will find Marcus Stroman in their way on Friday, with his 2.84 ERA. In his last two home games, Stroman has allowed just two earned runs in 11 innings. There is always the concern he does not strike people out, but the good outings far outweigh the bad for him this season. Merrill Kelly has not been quite so good and has struggled massively in his last three road starts. However, the Blue Jays offense ranks last in the league in batting average and OBP, as well as 27th in runs and 26th in slugging.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -106
Rockies @ Mets
This just looks like a massive mismatch on paper. Jacob deGrom has generally been lights out this season, especially in his last three home starts, where he has allowed just two earned runs in 20 innings, with 22 strikeouts. Additionally, the Rockies rank among the worst in the league for strikeout rate, wOBA and wRC+ when playing on the road. Meanwhile Antonio Senzatela has essentially been a random number generator this season. Since April 21st his ERA has ballooned from 1.35 up to 6.21 before moving back down to 5.33. This pick does rely on a Mets team, who rank just 26th in scoring since the beginning of May, using their bats correctly. However, so far in June they have scored five or more runs in four of their six games, including 14 in the last two home games.
1u – NY Mets -1.5 @ +112
Twins @ Tigers
The Tigers have yet to name a pitcher for this and frankly I am not sure I care. If it is not Matt Boyd or Spencer Turnbull on the mound I am always going to look to play the Twins. The Twins are the darling of baseball right now with their 41-20 record. They have struggled against the spread at home, but on the road, they have covered 19 of 33. In contrast, the Tigers cover the spread just 29% of the time at home, and with a potentially inexperienced pitcher against the team who rank first in the majors in runs, home runs and slugging, I cannot see that changing today.
1u – MIN Twins -1.5 @ +114
Dodgers @ Giants
Clayton Kershaw may not be the Clayton Kershaw of old, but he should be good enough to ensure that the Dodgers come out healthy winners against Drew Pomeranz and the Giants. Pomeranz this season has an 8.08 ERA and has allowed 25 earned runs in his last five outings. He has been better at home this season, allowing just 12 earned in his last four starts, but Kershaw and the Dodgers should be too good for him. Additionally, while the Dodgers do not have a great road record ATS, the Giants are covering just 32% of spreads at home this season, and just 45% as underdogs. I never like laying more than 120 or so but this line feels too good to pass up, especially as part of a parlay.
1u – LA Dodgers -1.5 @ -138
By Ben Rolfe