Wednesday brings us our first true split slate of the day, as four games take place through the afternoon, before the main slate kicks into gear in the evening.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Rangers @ Red Sox
This series in Boston has been a golden one, both for us and the Rangers. Two Rangers win and an under in game one has put us 3-0 on the series with some real profit thanks to the underdogs. Game 3 sees two pitchers with promising numbers face off. Lance Lynn’s 4.39 ERA is still recovering from his two poor outings against the Athletics and Blue Jays at the end of April beginning of May. Since then he has taken the mound six times, going six or more innings in every outing. In total he has thrown 39 1/3 innings with 49 strikeouts and just 13 earned runs in those six starts. As for Rick Porcello, he is also trending up from his 8.47 ERA on April 20th. Porcello has also been better at home this season, with an ERA below four in Fenway Park. His last two outing have been rough, but in his last six home games he has allowed an average of just 2.67 runs per game, whilst pitching six innings or more in all those outings.
1u – Under 9.5 Total Runs @ -113
Diamondbacks @ Phillies
The over has hit in both the first two games in this series and four of the Diamondbacks last five. However, this is when things change. Zack Eflin is the best pitcher the Phillies have thrown out so far in this series, with a 2.88 ERA, and having allowed just seven earned runs in his last four outings at home. Eflin has turned his season around in the last month or so, bringing his ERA down from 4.15. As for Merrill Kelly, he has been up and down this season, but is coming off two one earned run outings. The additional factor here is the weather in Philadelphia is expected to have a slightly suppressive effect on run scoring, making the under a nice play in this one.
1u – Under 9.5 Total Runs @ -120
Tigers @ Royals
We found success last night with two of the worst hitting teams in the majors and tonight the plan is to target two more. The Royals and Tigers rank 22nd and 29th respectively in runs scored, as well as 21st and 27th in slugging. Yes, both pitchers on the mound have ERAs over four, but both of those ERAs have been inflated by a couple of poor outings. The stat that stands out to me is that in games with a line at 8-or-8.5, the under has hit in 8-of-10 Tigers road games, and 7-of-10 Royals home games. In fact, in total, on the road, the Tigers have seen the under hit 22 times in 34 games.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ +100
By Ben Rolfe