Thursday brings another split slate of games, with two afternoon games and nine evening games.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Pirates @ Braves
Picking the over in a game with Julio Teheran on the mound is somewhat a brave thing to do right now. Teheran has been incredible in his last seven outings, allowing just three earned runs in that time. However, the weather is likely to be massively against Teheran in this game. The temperature is going to be high and the wind is expected to be blowing strongly out to left field. Additionally, on the other side is Joe Musgrove, who has been hit or miss recently. In his last four starts he has thrown 25 1/3 innings, allowing 17 earned runs. The recent games between these two teams have largely been high scoring, and I expect that to continue on Thursday.
1u – Over 9.5 Total Runs @ +108
Diamondbacks @ Nationals
Anytime Zack Greinke is on the mound then the under comes into play. Greinke has a 2.87 ERA this season and has allowed over two earned runs just three times in his last 10 starts. In his last five road starts, including two starts in Colorado, he has thrown 32 innings and allowed just seven earned runs. Erick Fedde is the more interesting element in this game, as he has only pitched four or more innings on five occasions this season. In the most recent four he has thrown 20 innings, surrendering just six earned runs. The issue with backing the under in any Nationals game is that their bullpen has been dreadful. However, the weather in Washington is for the large part expected to be pitcher friendly.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -102
Rangers @ Red Sox
This series has been an extremely profitable one for me so far, and I am hoping to finish it on a good note. Helping me with that is the presence of David Price on the mound. The veteran left-handed pitcher has been incredible at Fenway Park this season, with a 1.08 ERA in 25 innings pitched. The Rangers will likely be the best offense he has faced so far at home, but the slightly colder weather in Boston should help him have another good day. Of course, it takes two good pitching performances for an under to hit, and Adrian Sampson is a nice foil. As a somewhat unknown commodity entering the season, Sampson has been superb, with a 3.72 ERA. His problems have come on the road with 13 earned runs surrendered in his last three road starts, but hopefully that cold weather can keep any damage to a minimum.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ +114
Yankees @ White Sox
It is time to switch angle and hope for some runs in at least one of our games tonight. The Yankees and J.A. Happ travel to Chicago to take on the White Sox and former Yankee Ivan Nova. Nova has had a mixed year, but his recent success as largely come against less impressive offenses than the Yankees have to offer. Happ is another pitcher who will be hoping to continue his recent good form, but the weather is not in his favour. The wind is expected to be blowing out to right center field, which should increase home runs, and could prove a problem to a pitcher who allows a 40% FB rate. The over looks like an interesting play in a game which could have plenty of back-and-forth.
1u – Over 9.5 Total Runs @ -11
By Ben Rolfe