After a quiet Monday, Tuesday brings us a full 15-game evening slate. However, despite the plentiful options, the combination of some extreme weather conditions and mix-and-match pitching combinations make this an interesting slate, that could have some fascinating games.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Royals @ Indians
This is going to be a series where I ride the under until the over hits. Thanks to the Royals pitchers the lines in this series are likely to always be on the higher side, but the Indians hitters are not the ideal group to take advantage. Overall, Indians games have gone 32-44-3 on the total, and at home they are 18-23-1. However, when the line is at either 9-or-9.5 the under has hit 10-of-16 times in Indians home games. Additionally, both pitchers have an ERA under four, however, both of Glenn Sparkman’s last two road games have seen him allow four or more earned runs. Shane Bieber has had a couple of blow ups lately, but they have come against far better offenses than the Royals offense.
1u – Under 9.5 Total Runs @ -117
Rangers @ Tigers
It seems a long time ago that Jordan Zimmermann started this season with one earned run in his first 13 2/3 innings. Since then he has allowed 23 earned runs in the following five starts, pitching just 20 2/3 innings in that time. Zimmermann does not strike hitters out and that is likely to mean we see a Rangers offense with the potential to do a lot of damage making a lot of contact in this game. The Rangers have a slight question mark in Jesse Chavez on the mound. Chavez has started four games this season, but only gone three innings in those starts. However, in his last outing against the Indians he went five innings in relief, so he could be primed to pitch reasonably deep in this one. Chavez is not a known quantity, but he should be a better option that Zimmermann, and the Rangers offense is a whole lot better than what the Tigers offer.
1u – TEX Rangers -1.5 @ +114
Athletics @ Cardinals
Laying it all out I am a little split on this one, because the weather in St Louis is likely to be conducive to runs being scored. However, in Chris Bassitt and Jack Flaherty there are two very good pitchers on the mound. Flaherty has been especially good at home, allowing just a 2.49 ERA in 47 innings, with 53 strikeouts and a .248 wOBA against. Additionally, Bassitt has been best away from Oakland, with a 3.07 ERA and a .185 batting average against on the road. This game is likely going to be extremely tight on the total, but my lean is towards the under, on a tough day for finding value.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -105
By Ben Rolfe