As always Wednesday brings our first split slate of the week. While there is not much value outside of longshots on the afternoon slate, there are some interesting lines on the evening slate.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Blue Jays @ Yankees
I tried this last week when the Blue Jays were in Boston and it came so close to paying off. This pick is all about the road performances of Trent Thornton. At home Thornton has an ERA over six, but on the road that ERA is 2.97. The young right-handed pitcher has done well limiting contact and preventing home runs away from Toronto, and I am looking for that form to continue. His opponent, James Paxton, is also very good at home however. Paxton’s home ERA is 2.10, but he did struggle in an outing against the Mets here three starts ago. The odds are just so big that I like the chance of taking the Blue Jays straight up, hoping the Yankees eyes are already on their London trip this weekend. The other options for this game, when the lines are released, are the Blue Jays +0.5 and the under on total runs for the first five innings of the game. Therefore, you are protected from any bullpen mishaps by either of these teams.
0.5u – TOR Blue Jays ML @ +245
Rangers @ Tigers
I really cannot fathom how the Tigers are favorites in this one. Matt Boyd has allowed 15 earned runs in his last four starts, and if you ignore the starts against two terrible offenses in the Orioles and Marlins, it is 22 earned in his last six versus real opponents. In contrast Mike Minor has been simply incredible, with a 2.52 ERA, and not allowing more than three earned runs in any of his last 10 starts. Maybe it is home advantage? The Tigers are 11-26-1 at home, with just two home wins in 10 games this month.
1u – TEX Rangers ML @ +100
Nationals @ Marlins
I never like going under on a 7.5 total, but the Marlins just make you want to do it. They have the dynamite combination of a solid rotation, with a very poor offense. I thought this line might be a fraction higher, given the Marlins are starting a rookie, and Patrick Corbin has a five-plus ERA on the road. However, Marlins Park is not your average road game, as the Marlins average just 3.10 runs per game at home this season. Corbin has already pitched a complete game shutout against this team this season, and I expect another good start here. As for the rookie, that rookie is Zac Gallen, who lit up the minor leagues this season, and limited the Cardinals to just one run on the road. It will be uncomfortable but give me the under in this one.
1u – Under 7.5 Total Runs @ +100
Rays @ Twins
So, what we learnt from this matchup last night is that Blake Snell may well be broken. We have had warning signs, which is why I could not touch that game, but now it looks to be confirmed. Snell allowed seven earned runs in a game, which otherwise saw just five runs scored. Now we have a matchup between two very good pitchers in Charlie Morton and Jake Odorizzi. Yes, the Minnesota offense is very good, but they average a whole run less at home than they do on the road. Additionally, Morton and his 2.31 ERA may be one of the better pitchers they have seen this season. Jake Odorizzi has been no slouch either, although it will be interesting to see if there are any issues for him pitching against his old team for the second time in a month. Either way give me the under in this one, because Blake Snell is not around to ruin it for me.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -104