MLB Picks & Parlays Friday 06/28
Friday sees a return to a complete evening slate, with all 14 games taking place in the evening. Only the Red Sox and Yankees are missing from this slate, as they prepare to do battle in London this weekend.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
The Detroit Tigers are not having a good time of it. They have now lost seven straight games, and their last seven home games. They have won just two home games in the entire month of June, and all 10 of their losses have been by at least two runs. Now they get the Washington Nationals and Anibal Sanchez coming to town. Sanchez’s 4.02 ERA is somewhat misleading, as he has allowed four or more earned runs in just two of his last 10 starts. In fact, prior to his last outing against the Braves, he had allowed just four earned runs in his last five starts, and just four earned in his last four road starts. The Tigers pitcher, Daniel Norris has not be terrible, but he lacks the backing of his offense, who somehow manage to rank below the Marlins in runs scored. I expect to see the Nationals win with clear daylight, against a Tigers team who cover the spread just 25% of the time at home.
1u – WAS Nationals -1.5 @ +100
The Dodgers squeaked it out thanks to a late rally last night, but that is not going to stop me going back to the well once again. The Dodgers are the far superior team, and appear to have the Rockies number, having win the last 11 games between the two sides. Dodgers start, Hyun-Jin Ryu is 9-1 on the season, with a 1.27 ERA, allowing just 14 earned runs in total on the season. Ryu does not have a great record in Colorado, with a 7.56 ERA in four starts, but he is a completely different pitcher now to what he was in 2017 when most of that damage was done. Both teams have a lot of talent, but I think the red-hot Dodgers win this one going away.
1u – LA Dodgers -2 @ -117
This is a fascinating game between two .500 teams looking to stay in contention. The pitching matchup is also fascinating, as both have been up and down this season. However, Eric Lauer has been very good at home, allowing just eight earned runs in his last five home games. Michael Wacha has not fared particularly well on the road this season, but the Mets, Phillies and Cubs can be extremely tough places to go into and perform well. In San Diego is the place to face these Padres, as they average just 3.73 runs per game at home, compared to 5.20 on the road. With cooler weather in San Diego compared to many other places in the country, this could be a relatively low scoring game.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -122
It doesn’t always work, but nothing makes me feel more comfortable than considering the under in Giants home games. Oracle is one of the hardest parks in the majors to score runs, and the Giants exploit that regularly. Their last four home games, including the first game of the series have seen the under hit three times, with an average of 23 runs being scored in those four games. Both pitchers have been solid this season, and Merrill Kelly appears to enjoy pitching in San Francisco, allowing just two earned runs in his last two starts and a 11 1/3 innings. Shaun Anderson for his part has not allowed more than three earned runs in any start in the month of June, and has allowed an average of just 2.5 earned runs per game at home this season, albeit four of those came against the Diamondbacks last time he faced them here. This should be a tight game, and the under is my pick once again in this one.
1u – Under 7.5 Total Runs @ -102
By Ben Rolfe