We have a quiet Monday in the majors, with just six games across an afternoon and evening slate. The Blue Jays host the Royals on the afternoon slate, before five games take to the field in the evening.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Royals @ Blue Jays
This is not going to be the most fascinating game of the day, but it could be interesting at the very least. Clayton Richard is not having a good season, and his home ERA is 7.71, having allowed 14 earned runs in 16 1/3 innings. Glenn Sparkman has generally been solid at home, but has struggled on the road, allowing a 7.85 ERA on the road. However, the difference here is that Sparkman has at least been solid in some outings, whereas recently Richard has been hit hard in every outing and is struggling to strike people out. I like the Royals to finish this series with a road victory.
1u – KC Royals ML @ +125
Cubs @ Pirates
Games in Pittsburgh have generally been sailing over the total this season with the over being 23-11-2. When the line has been set at either 9-or-9.5 the over has hit in 11 of the 16 games. Similarly, in Cubs road games with the same lines, the over has hit on 10 of 17 occasions. Trevor Williams has been struggling lately, seeing his ERA rise by two runs in his last 10 starts. In his last six starts he has allowed four or more earned runs in four games, including both of his home starts in that time. As for the Cubs starter, Adbert Alzolay, he has been good in his two starts so far but has yet to start on the road in the majors, so to some extent is untested. This will be a tough test against a team in the Pirates who have averaged just over six runs per game in their last five home games. The wind is blowing in slightly, but there should still be plenty of opportunities for runs to be scored.
1u – Over 9.5 Total Runs @ -110
Giants @ Padres
If this game was in San Francisco I think the under would be in play, but as it is in San Diego the over comes into contention. The Padres have not got great numbers at home this season, but in their last six games they have scored 32 runs. Additionally, Samardzija has struggled recently, allowing 16 earned runs in his last four starts. If we just look at his performances on the road, then he has allowed 18 earned in his last five starts. On average this Giants team is allowing five runs per game on the road. As for the Padres, Logan Allen is off to a great start, with two earned runs allowed combined in his two starts. However, the Giants offense has been solid on the road, averaging 4.46 runs per game. Both of these teams have seen the over hit in three of their last five games, with one push and one under, leading me to think the over is the way to go in this one.
1u – Over 8 Total Runs @ -111
By Ben Rolfe