MLB Picks & Parlays Thursday 07/04
What better way to enjoy July 4th than kicking back and watching a full slate of baseball action. The day kicks off with the Marlins in Washington at the early time of 11.05 am, with games then stretching throughout the day.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
10 runs?! The Marlins have not had a game with a total set at 10 all season, and for good reason as they rank 29th in runs scored, averaging around 3.5 runs per game. They do score slightly more on the road, but Anibal Sanchez has been very good for the Nationals this season. The veteran right-hander is following up his impressive season with the Braves in 2018, with a 3.82 ERA in 2019. Elieser Hernandez will take the mound for the Marlins, having gone at least five innings in all of his last four outings and allowing no more than three earned runs in any of those starts. This game is different because of the early start and the occasion, but I cannot see Independence Day kicking off with a run fest in the capital. In fact, I might just shave half a run off the line and get positive odds with the line at 9.5.
1u – Under 9.5 Total Runs @ +110
The double-header on Wednesday was packed with runs, as 27 were scored across the two games. There is every reason that should continue Thursday. Matt Boyd has allowed 19 earned runs in his last five starts, including 12 in 15 innings on the road. Reynaldo Lopez has hardly been spectacular either, with a 6.12 ERA and having allowed 10 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings in his last two home games. These two offenses rank in the bottom-third of the league in terms of offense, but this is a situation where both should be able to have some success.
1u – Over 9.5 Total Runs @ +105
This line does not make sense to me because Luis Castillo has been so good this season, and arguably should be favorite. He has a 2.47 ERA with 115 strikeouts in 98 1/3 innings. Walks are always an issue, as he has given up 20 in his last five starts, and he has been dinged by Milwaukee twice this season, allowing four earned runs in each of his last two outings against them. However, both of those starts were on the road, and now he is at home, where he has a 1.92 ERA, and has a allowed just a .160 batting average against. In contrast, Brandon Woodruff has struggled on the road recently, allowing 13 earned runs in his last three outings away from Miller Park. The Reds offensive numbers have not always been pretty this season, but they have 28 runs in their last six games, just suggesting we might be seeing the form from them that many expected preseason.
1u – CIN Reds ML @ +115
We opened the article with the first game of the day so let’s finish with the last. Hyun-Jin Ryu will be on the mound for the Dodgers, which always puts them in play for money line and run line bets. Ryu has a 1.83 ERA on the season, and an incredible 0.94 ERA when pitching at home. In 57 2/3 innings he has allowed just six earned runs, 40 hits and 10 extra base hits, of which three have been home runs. His last five home starts have seen him allow a combined one earned runs 22 hits and three walks in 37 2/3 innings. For the Padres, Dinelson Lamet will be pitching in the majors for the first time since 2017, having missed all of 2018 with injury. He has thrown a total of 24 innings in the minors, allowing 16 earned runs and walking nine. He will cause the Dodgers hitters some problems having struck out 33 in those 24 innings, but in his season debut I just cannot see him hanging in there with Ryu. This feels like the perfect game to end the day, and could be made even better by pushing the line out to a full two runs to get into that positive territory.
1u – LA Dodgers -2 @ +125