MLB Picks & Parlays Friday 07/05
After a day loaded with value Friday presents a much tougher challenge finding value, especially in the early evening games. However, fortunately the West Coast look to be the place to find that value.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
This is a fascinating pitching matchup to start the series. Zack Greinke has been a machine this season, with a 9-3 record and a 2.90 ERA. Anytime he is on the mound the under comes into play. Antonio Senzatela has been a little more up and down for the Rockies, with a 4.83 ERA and a 7-5 record. However, his performances on the road have generally been something worth shouting about, with a 3.92 ERA. Both offenses are solid, but this is a pitching matchup which should have a chance to keep it tight.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ +105
In 2019, the Mariners and Athletics have played out some high scoring games, averaging 10.3 runs per game across their 10 games this season. The key to this game is the way the Athletics crush left-handed pitching, ranking second in ISO, fourth in slugging and third in wRC+ when lefties are the mound. The Mariners average close to five runs at home, so expect them to chip in a few, but the Athletics could absolutely go to town on Yusei Kikuchi, much like they did last time they faced him.
1u – Over 9.5 Total Runs @ -111
Much as many expected Dinelson Lamet just simply could not keep pace with Hyun-Jin Ryu last night. On an initial glance you may think the same about today’s matchup of Eric Lauer and Clayton Kershaw. However, whilst still good, Kershaw is not the lights out pitcher he once was, with a 3.23 ERA and at least two earned runs allowed in eight of his last 10 starts. Lauer has had a couple of hiccups this season, which have driven a 4.22 ERA, but generally he has been pretty good, allowing just one earned run in six of his last 10 starts. Lauer’s recent form suggests he should be able to hang tough with a Dodgers team who cover the spread just 50% of the time despite their incredible 60-29 record.
1u – SD Padres +1.5 @ -124
Hopefully we will finish the night with a pitching duel out at Oracle Park. Drew Pomeranz 6.25 ERA hides the fact that in his last four home starts he has pitched 20 innings, struck out 30 and allowed just two earned runs to score. As for Dakota Hudson, he has been superb recently, allowing three earned runs or less in all his last 10 starts. His recent road form has seen him allow eight runs in 26 2/3 innings. Now he is pitching in a pitcher friendly ball park, with benign weather conditions, I am expecting another good outing. Both pitchers should also be boosted by the fact these two teams rank 27th and 28 in slugging percentage, as well as in the bottom-third of the league in battign average, runs scored and home runs.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ +100
By Ben Rolfe