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Our picks for today's MLB action

Wednesday sees a split slate of action, with six afternoon games and nine evening games. However, the evening slate could be interrupted by some thunderstorms after all the recent hot weather.

Here are Today’s MLB Picks:

Mets @ Twins

In almost every game on the two slates the weather forecast is predicted to favor hitters, but this game is the exception. There is expected to be strong winds blowing in from right centre which should suppress home runs and keep the scoring down. However, due to the recent struggles of the two pitchers this line is extremely high. Jason Vargas allowed six last time out in Miami, and Martin Perez has allowed four earned runs in four of his last five outings. However, the statistics overall favor the under, with the Twins having seen the under hit in their last five straight contests. In Twins home games with a line of 10 or more the under is 7-3, as the Twins average half a run less at home than on the road.

1u – Under 10 Total Runs @ +110

Padres @ Marlins

As I stated yesterday the stats favor the over in this series. The over is 27-20-1 in Marlins home games and 23-17-5 in Padres road games. Yesterday saw 19 runs scored between the two teams, and I am expecting to see scoring once again today. Trevor Richards has had struggles recently, allowing 14 earned runs in his last three home starts, leaving him with a 4.45 home ERA this season. Chris Paddack has generally been solid but is prone to the odd hiccup. The key here is the recent struggles of Richards, which makes a line of 7.5 seem extremely low in this contest.

1u – Over 7.5 Total Runs @ -105

White Sox @ Royals

There have been so many runs scored in the majors this season it is time to start trusting the over, even when the line is above 10. For example, when the line is set at 10 or more in Royals home games, the over is 10-3, compared to 2-5 when they are on the road. The two starting pitchers alone have a combined 10.14 ERA this season, with Ivan Nova having allowed three or more earned runs in seven of his last 10 starts, and Duffy in six of his last eight. The weather in Kansas City is supposed to massively favor hitting, with temperatures in the 90s and a strong wind blowing out to left field. This could be a long day for the pitchers, and therefore it is worth risking pushing this line out half a run to 11 in order to get the odds positive.

1u – Over 11 Total Runs @ +113

By Ben Rolfe

Article Author


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