Another split slate greets us on Thursday, with five early games and eight evening games for us to choose from.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Tigers @ Indians
The Indians are absolutely on fire right now, winning their last four, including the first three in this series. In those three games they are averaging just under eight runs per game and allowing just under three. At the end of May, I would have been picking this game the other way, with Matt Boyd owning a 2.85 ERA and looking great. However, since then he has allowed three or more earned runs in every start, and his ERA has jumped up to 3.95. Trevor Bauer has been frustratingly inconsistent, allowing five earned runs three times in his last 10 starts, as well as two or less six times. However, with this Indians offense waking up I like the Indians to round off this series in style and send a real message to the first placed Minnesota Twins.
1u – CLE Indians -1.5 @ +105
Cardinals @ Reds
This is certainly an interesting matchup between two teams who are desperate to stay relevant in the NL Central. All the interest for me comes on the pitching side of the matchup. For the Cardinals you have Dakota Hudson, who has dropped his ERA nearly a full run in his last 10 starts. Hudson has not allowed more than three earned runs in a single start amongst those 10, including six road outings. Tanner Roark has been equally as impressive, only allowing major damage to be dealt in Colorado. Both offenses have struggled this season, and despite favorable hitting weather the numbers favor the under. The under is 28-16-2 in Reds home games, including 10-6-2 in games with a line of 9-or-9.5. The under is 14-9-3 in Cardinals road games where the line is over nine.
1u – Under 9.5 Total Runs @ -105
Brewers @ Diamondbacks
The instinct whenever you see the Brewers or Diamondbacks always seems to be to think high scoring. However, that has not been the case this season. The under is 22-16-4 in Diamondbacks home games, and 11-8-4 in games with a total over nine. As for the Brewers the under is 24-19-3 in their road games, and 13-10-1 when the line is over nine. Both pitchers in this game have been strong this season. Merrill Kelly is another who has brought his ERA down over the last eight starts, dropping nearly a whole run in that time, while allowing over three earned runs just once. Zach Davies has just plodded along all season, generally producing strong results despite never really blowing anyone away. In a park that has a tendency to favor the under this season, I like these two pitchers to keep this one tight.
1u – Under 9.5 Total Runs @ -117
By Ben Rolfe