The final day of July brings us a close to even split slate of games. 12 teams take the field in the afternoon, before 16 teams will look to shine in the evening. Therefore, we have split our picks with two from each slate below.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Braves @ Nationals
A fascinating game lies in store as these two teams both look to take the series. It is a mixed day weather wise, with hot temperatures, a slight outward win, but also the chance of some rain around. The two pitchers in this one have been good this season, with Mike Soroka owning a 2.44 ERA overall on the season, but dropping to an incredible 1.19 on the road. Anibal Sanchez has not been quite as good, but a 3.63 ERA on the season is exactly what the Nationals have asked from him. The only question mark for me taking the under here is the bullpen effect, but both pitchers are more than capable of going six or seven innings and hopefully neutralising that problem.
1u – Under 9.5 Total Runs @ +104
Pirates @ Reds
Luis Castillo burned us in a big way last week as he ran into a hot Rockies offense. However, I am expecting a big bounce back in this one against the Pirates. Even following last weeks melt down he has a 2.29 ERA at home this season, so it shouldn’t be too much to ask for him to get back to his old ways. The bigger question mar is around Dario Agrazal, as he has just six outings in his major league career. However, his 3.24 ERA tells you that for the large part that has gone reasonably well. This series has been high scoring so far, but games in Cincinnati with a line at 9-to-9.5 have trended towards the under, which is 12-7-2 in 21 games so far.
1u – Under 9.5 Total Runs @ -110
Twins @ Marlins
The Twins season is looking a little dicier than it did a month ago. Suddenly they are in a scrap for the AL Central with a surging Indians team. However, this series in Miami should be a chance to put it right. They struggled in the first game of the series against the young rookie Zac Gallen, but ultimately came away with a win. Now they face Sandy Alcantara, who has allowed 12 earned runs from his last 18 innings at home. In contrast, Jose Berrios has allowed just 16 earned runs in his last nine outings. I like the Twins to get the jump here and win this one by a fair margin.
1u – MIN Twins -1.5 @ -105
Mets @ White Sox
Let’s stay on the under here, both for this article and for this series. The first game of the series only saw four runs scored in nine innings, with three more tacked on in extra innings. That game had two pitchers with questionable form on the mound. This game has the two staff aces on the mound in Lucas Giolito and Jacob deGrom. deGrom has a 2.86 ERA and has allowed just one earned run in his three post-All-Star Break outings, striking out 25 in 19 innings. Giolito got rocked last time out against Minnesota, but bar three starts this year he has been nearly flawless. Over 41% of his earned runs allowed this season have come in those three outings, leaving just 27 allowed in the other 17 outings. The Mets are certainly not a juggernaut offense, so I like his chances of going to-to-toe with deGrom.
1u – Under 8 Total Runs @ -105