Monday sees a relatively busy slate of games, in part thanks to a double header between the Mets and the Marlins in New York. Let’s take a look where we can find some value to kick start this week.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Brewers @ Pirates
Less than a week after being traded Jordan Lyles is back in Pittsburgh, but on the mound for the Brewers and not the Pirates. PNC Park has not been a happy hunting ground for Lyles, as he owns a 5.52 ERA in his former “home” park. His .314 batting average against and opponents slugging percentage of .590 leaves a lot to be desired. He has also been getting worse and worse as the year has gone on, with his ERA hitting 11 in his 17 innings in July. As for Dario Agarzal he has struggled in his last two starts, allowing eight earned runs in nine innings. Throw all of that together with hitter friendly weather conditions and the over is the only way to really look in this game.
1u – Over 9.5 Total Runs @ -114
Braves @ Twins
This line just seems high considering the pitchers on the mound in this clash. Mike Soroka has just a 2.37 ERA and has allowed just two earned runs in his last 18 2/3 innings on the road. Jake Odorizzi has a 3.73 ERA, which is only that high thanks to an implosion against the Yankees last time out at home. A fifth of his earned runs were allowed in that start, demonstrating just how good he has been the rest of the year. Both of these offenses can be good on their day but these pitchers have been so good this season the under just feels the right play.
1u – Under 10 Total Runs @ -105
Phillies @ Diamondbacks
This is a really interesting matchup, because both of these pitchers have struggled this year. Merrill Kelly has especially struggled the last couple of times out, allowing 14 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings. Those two bad outings came against the Tigers and Orioles, so you should expect the Phillies to be able to get after him as well. Velazquez has been up and down this year, but the key for him is that he does not go deep into games, exposing an often misfiring Phillies bullpen. With Kelly looking all over the place right now and Velazquez no sure thing, the over is the way to look in this game in Arizona.
1u – Over 10 Total Runs @ -110
By Ben Rolfe