Thursday brings us a relatively quiet day in the majors, with just eight games. Interestingly for a Thursday there are no afternoon games, and instead all of the focus will be in the evening.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Angels @ Red Sox
I have picked against Chris Sale way more this season than I ever expected to, but he has not been vintage Chris Sale in 2019. His 5-11 record and 4.68 ERA really speaks for itself and makes it interesting that he is this big of a favorite in this matchup. In five of his last seven matchups Sale has allowed five or more earned runs, totalling 31 earned runs in his last 37 1/3 innings. In contrast, Dillon Peters has been surprisingly good this year with a 3.20 ERA and allowing just eight earned runs in his last 22 1/3 innings. It is hard to ever count out Sale, but with the way he is pitching right now these odds on the Angels are too good to pass up.
1u – LA Angels ML @ +229
Phillies @ Giants
This should be a fun pitching matchup as Aaron Nola goes up against the old warhorse in Madison Bumgarner. Nola has had an up and down season but has allowed four earned runs in two of his last four starts. Bumgarner has generally been pretty solid, but the last few stats have not gone well, allowing 12 earned runs in 19 innings. The weather in this game is the big selling factor as the wind is projected to be blowing out at nearly 20 mph which should favor hitting in a big way. Right now, only a total of seven is available in most places but it might be worth pushing this to 8-or-8.5 in order to improve the odds.
1u – Over 7 Total Runs @ -120
Rockies @ Padres
Picking the under on a line set at eight with two pitchers that currently own ERAs over four may seem a little bit crazy. However, Jon Gray’s recent performances on the road have been much improved from the beginning of the season. In his last four road starts he has allowed just five earned runs in 21 innings. He is facing Eric Lauer, who has frankly been incredible in San Diego this season. On the road he has a 6.20 ERA but that ERA drops to 2.60 when pitching at home. With the weather sitting neutral for this one and the form of the two pitchers in their situations I like the under in this one.
1u – Under 8 Total Runs @ -102
By Ben Rolfe