Another loaded start to the weekend with all 30 teams in action. 14 of the 15 games are on the evening slate, but there is still some value in that solitary afternoon game.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Athletics @ White Sox
This line just feels too high for this situation. Mike Fiers is having a good season and has been especially good recently, allowing just nine earned runs in six starts and 39 1/3 innings. Ross Detweiler has been less convincing with a 5.72 ERA and five earned runs allowed in his last 10 2/3 innings. However, with the weather expected to slightly favor pitching and this line just pushing over the 10 mark, where the under is 7-4-1 for the White Sox at home, I like the under in this one. In fact, I am going to push this one down a fraction to 10 in order to get the odds into the positive region.
1u – Under 10 Total Runs @ +120
Astros @ Orioles
Wade Miley pitching against Dylan Bundy is not the blockbuster we might want in baseball. However, with Bundy’s 5.89 ERA and a .298 batting average against at home this game offers us the chance to back the Astros against the spread. The Astros have now covered five straight against teams that are better than the Orioles, and the Orioles cover just 36.7% of the time at home this season. The odds are not great on the -1.5 but the Astros are so good I am willing to lay the odds a little here.
1u – HOU Astros -1.5 @ -166
Yankees @ Blue Jays
Backing JA Happ gives me the shakes a little but, but his underlying road numbers give me some hope. His 4.62 ERA is less than ideal but his opposing .238 batting average and .308 wOBA in road games is promising. The Yankees offense is the real draw here, as they have scored 51 runs in their last five games, on the way to covering the spread in all of them. Included in that number is a massive 21 home runs and Sean Reid-Foley is going to have his work cut out in this one.
1u – NY Yankees -1.5 @ +100
Rockies @ Padres
This pick is a vote in confidence for Cal Quantril, who has been really good since the All-Star break. In four starts he has allowed just three earned runs across 22 innings, including starts at the Cubs and Dodgers. In contrast, Kyle Freeland has a 7.24 ERA, albeit that the majority of that damage has been done in Colorado. However, his ERA on the road is still 4.91, and with the Rockies offense scoring just 12 runs in this three-game road trip so far, I like the Padres to come out on top in the second game of this series.
1u – SD Padres ML @ -144
By Ben Rolfe