As usual we have a quiet Monday, with only a double-header between the Orioles and Yankees meaning we have afternoon baseball. However, we can still find some value on this smaller slate.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Reds @ Nationals
Monday is looking like a day for the over, with the weather generally suiting hitting. That starts in Washington where Erick Fedde has a 6.17 ERA this season, having allowed nine earned runs in his last start at home. It has been a rough start to the month for Red starter Anthony DeSclafani, who has allowed seven earned runs in 10 1/3 innings so far. The Nationals average 4.8 runs scored at home this season and come off a series with the Mets in which they scored 16 runs in three games. As for the Reds, they have scored an average of 6.2 runs per game in their last five so the over should be well and truly in play here.
1u – Over 10 Total Runs @ -125
Astros @ White Sox
This game should be all about the Astros as Zack Greinke faces off against Dylan Cease. Cease currently has a 6.00 ERA and has allowed less than three earned runs just once this season. As for Greinke his start with the Astros was a little rough but facing a team very familiar with him in the form of the Rockies was always going to be difficult. This is a very different story ad I expect Greinke to be dominant. The Astros come into this game having scored double-digits in three of their last five games, including 23 on Saturday in Baltimore. Backing a team to win by more than two runs is a rare thing to do, but this looks like the perfect opportunity to do it.
1u – HOU Astros -2.5 @ -111
Pirates @ Angels
This is not a pretty pitching matchup. Mitch Keller’s major league career has started allowing 14 earned runs in three starts, including six earned in each of his first two road starts. On the other side Jose Suarez has a 6.22 ERA and has seen his ERA rise by 1.5 runs in his last 10 outings. This game just feels like an easy over to me so I am going to take it and hope these two do not surprise us.
1u – Over 9.5 Total Runs @ -115
By Ben Rolfe