Daily Picks: Don't Dodge LA
A mixed afternoon and evening slate combination sees all 30 teams in action. However, most of the value actually lies on the smaller six game evening slate.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
Everything about this matchup bar the ballpark screams take the over to me right now. Homer Bailey and Tyler Beede have ERAs over 5.50. Beede has allowed four or more earned run in all of his last four, totalling 18 allowed in his last 19 1/3 innings on 32 hits and seven walks. Similarly, Bailey has allowed 21 in his last four, allowing seven or more on two occasions. The ballpark is also somewhat negated with the expectation that the wind will be blowing out reasonably hard from the plate, which should increase offensive production.
1u – Over 9 Total Runs @ -105
In contrast, everything about this game screams under to me. Cole Hamels has a 3.09 ERA and has allowed over three earned runs just twice in his last 10 starts. Nola has been up and down this season but his last five starts have alternated good and bad, and this is the turn of the good. Even his bad starts recently have been allowing three or four earned runs as a maximum. With the weather expected to suit the under and Phillies home games tending towards the under, this feels like a solid value.
1u – Under 8.5 Total Runs @ -110
Dustin May ended up pitching last night for the Dodgers which means we get to back the always impressive Kershaw once again today. He has allowed just six earned runs in five starts and a 31 innings since the All-Star break, striking out an impressive 40 hitters in that time. Elieser Hernandez has been better at home than on the road, but equally his ERA has consistently been over five since the beginning of July. The Dodgers have scored 24 in their last two games and are hot right now so I fancy them to win this one going away.
1u – LA Dodgers -2 @ -120
This is another game where the line just looks too high. Dakota Hudson has not been great since the beginning of July, but he rarely allows more than three earned runs in a start. Brad Keller has been up and down but again but has not had bad starts back-to-back once in his last 10. After allowing five earned last time out in Detroit I expect to see him bounce back here today. The under being set all the way up at 10 is especially juicy for the under given that the weather should favor hitting in this one.
1u – Under 10 Total Runs @ -108
By Ben Rolfe