Daily Picks: Weather Is Going To Play A Part
A fairly balanced split slate is on the docket for us this Saturday, with six games in the afternoon and a further nine in the evening.
Here are Today’s MLB Picks:
We have had two interesting games so far in this series and this one should be no different. James Paxton has been solid in his last four home starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 21 1/3 innings. While those numbers are not great, he has generally been solid in terms of consistency. Performances against the Rockies and Blue Jays do concern me, but his last three starts in general have seen just six earned runs in 18 2/3 innings. On the other side you have Zach Plesac, who has two shutouts in his last five outings. Over those last five outings he has thrown 29 innings allowing just nine earned runs. With the weather expected to favor pitching in this one, the under looks the right side to be on in this one.
1u – Under 10.5 Total Runs @ -115
My first instinct was that this game is too tight to call, but the more I investigated it the more a discrepancy appeared. Anthony DeSclefani has been better at home this season, allowing just a 3.70 ERA with a .251 batting average against. His ERA on the road is over 1.50 runs higher, so therefore, backing him at home looks to be solid. In contrast, we have the road form of Miles Mikolas. Mikolas has a 6.34 ERA and a .317 batting average against. Neither of these pitchers have been in great form this month so far, but the home/road splits suggest the Reds make for an interesting underdog at close to even money.
1u – CIN Reds ML @ +100
This is an interesting matchup because neither of the two pitchers have been terrible and the weather is expected to favor pitching. Eduardo Rodriguez has been solid at home this season with a 3.89 ERA and a .241 batting average against. As for Asher Wojciechowki, he has a .194 batting average against on the road. In a lesser matchup with better hitting weather last night only 10 runs were scored, so I am banking on the under hitting in this one.
1u – Under 11 Total Runs @ -120
Until Hyun-Jin Ryu actually starts struggling you should keep trusting him to put together the impressive performances he has this season. His first start back from the IL saw him throw seven shutout innings so he has settled right back into the form he was in. In contrast, Mike Foltynewicz has never got it going this season, with a 6.24 ERA and allowing 16 earned runs in his last four starts, spanning 21 1/3 innings. With the disparity in the pitcher stats it is hard not to take the Dodgers to win this reasonably comfortably.
1u – LA Dodgers -1.5 @ +100
By Ben Rolfe